Daily News | BTC Market Share Reached A New High in Recent Years; Focus on the Unlocking of the Top 6 Tokens This Week, Heavyweight Data Will Be Released This Week

Crypto Daily Digest: Bitcoin market share has reached a new high in recent years; Focus on the unlocking of the top 6 tokens this week

According to Coineck data, the market share of Bitcoin has increased to over 49%, reaching its highest point in more than two years. The dominant position of Bitcoin has steadily increased, from about 38% at the beginning of this year to 48.85% on October 21, reaching the highest level since April 2021. This surge in dominance can be attributed to a one-year rebound in Bitcoin prices, which have surged 81% since the beginning of the year.

According to CoinGecko data, the market share of Bitcoin has risen to a new high since April 2021, temporarily at 49.85%; Ethereum‘s market share is temporarily reported at 16.6%; The market share of USDT temporarily reports at 7.22%.

Rebecca Stevens, a researcher at The Block, pointed out that the increase in dominance reflects that cryptocurrencies “have remained strong under current market conditions and have performed well for most of this week. The inflation dilemma, geopolitical risks, and increasingly partisan US government have put pressure on investors seeking to minimize risks.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin seems to be closer than ever to obtaining spot ETF approval and can in a sense serve as an ideological hedge against uncertainty on the world stage, helping it regain a more dominant position in the cryptocurrency field.

The founder of SlowMist, Cos, posted on social media that the Lightning Network has experienced a replacement loop attack, similar to the sandwich attack in MEV, which uses front and back sandwiches to trap funds from the target. Implementing this attack method is not easy, and the following conditions need to be met: opening two channels on the victim. Payment is routed through one of these two channels.

The HTLC-timeouts of the victims of the replacement loop attack are within the Δ blocks. Meanwhile, it is necessary to ensure that victims do not discover HTLC pre-image transactions. Before this risk is fixed, project teams using lightning networks can be vigilant before establishing channels upstream and downstream. It is best to establish a reputable network to reduce the risk of being caught, and further testing and verification are needed for specific situations.

According to Token Unlocks data, six projects will undergo one-time token unlocking this week, with a total release value exceeding $8 million. Among them, YGG and CTSI will receive a one-time large unlock.

At 4:00 (UTC) on October 23, Cartesi will unlock 21.43 million CTSIs, worth approximately $2.8 million, accounting for 2.91% of the circulating supply;

At 2:00 (UTC) on October 24, Polkadot‘s first batch of Crowdloans will unlock approximately 100 million DOTs, worth approximately $396 million;

At 2:00 (UTC) on October 26, Euler (EUL) will unlock approximately 145,000 tokens worth approximately $390,000;

At 0:00 (UTC) on October 27, Galxe will unlock 586000 GALs, worth approximately $686,000, accounting for 1.26% of the circulating supply;

At 14:00 (UTC) on October 27, Yield Guild Games will unlock 12.58 million YGGs, worth approximately $2.95 million, accounting for 6.8% of the circulation supply;

At 0:00 (UTC) on October 28, SingularityNET will unlock 9.53 million AGIX, worth approximately $1.74 million, accounting for 0.77% of the circulating supply.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

This week, Bitcoin saw a breakthrough above the $30,000 resistance, with short-term support gradually rising as a breakthrough line. Pay attention to whether it continues to rise above the $30,888 level. The overall trend is approaching a turning point at the end of the quarter, which is seen as a signal for a potential reversal in both short and long positions. It is recommended to maintain support at the $29,495 level.

If the daily chart successfully breaks above the $30,888 level, the short-term scenario may see a retest of $30,600. Moreover, there has been a completion of a significant “W” bottom bullish pattern since the beginning of this year, and the price may continue to rise towards the resistance levels of $33,000 and $36,000.

On the contrary, if the $30,888 resistance level rises but doesn’t break or experiences a false breakout and quickly retraces, this year’s trend may witness the formation of a significant head and shoulders pattern. For a conservative short strategy, consider positioning short resistance orders around the $30,800 level and expect the price to potentially decline to the $28,100 support level.

ETH

This week, along with the broader market, Ethereum reached a resistance point at $1,694. In the short term, it is advised to watch the red descending trendline. If the price remains below the red resistance and the $1,726 level, it still falls within the bearish trend. Short-term trading volume appears relatively weak compared to the overall market, and the short-term market focus may not be on Ethereum.

LINK

Leading the oracle sector, Chainlink has seen strategic holdings in the price range between $4.75 and $8.35. The current profit stands at 84.95%, and it is advisable to continue with a long-term hold strategy. In the short term, a retracement to the upper range of $9.45 is possible. If trading short-term, consider taking profits, while long-term outlook continues to target all-time highs.

Macro: Federal Reserve is in silence period, focus on this week’s Heavyweight data release

The Federal Reserve believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates until mid next year. The end of 2024 may be the time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s Half Year Financial Stability Report: Continued inflation may pose financial risks.

Federal Reserve officials have entered a period of silence this week, and there won’t be much news from the market. However, based on the recent infiltration of information from Federal Reserve officials, it is generally possible to bid farewell to interest rate hikes in November. As we have already said before, this round of interest rate hikes has basically ended, but the Federal Reserve is still observing data strength for the sake of continuous observation.

Meanwhile, regarding next year’s interest rate cut, although Bostek said that there will be no interest rate cut until mid 2024, we should not believe too much because this pace will change with macroeconomics and data, rather than being static. Therefore, I believe that the interest rate cut will definitely come early, otherwise the US economy will inevitably experience a significant recession.

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at 5.25% -5.50% in November is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to the range of 5.00% -5.25% is 0.1%.

This week, we will focus on data. On Tuesday evening at 13:45 (UTC), PMI data will be released, with a manufacturing PMI of 49.8 and an expected reading of 49.5; The pre-PMI value of the service industry is 50.1, with an expected 49.4; The manufacturing and service industry PMI is the first heavyweight data released in the coming week, and the market expects the initial value of the Markit service industry PMI in the United States in October to fall below the “boom and bust line.”

If that’s the case, there is a possibility of a significant decline in the US dollar index on that day (testing the 105.00 level). Many analysts are searching for a turning point in US economic data that has gone from boom to bust.

At 12:30 (UTC) on Thursday, the US GDP data for the third quarter was released, with a previous value of 2.1% and a forecast of 4.1%; Thursday’s US GDP may cause a sensation in the market, with expectations that the US GDP in the third quarter will rise to a level of up to 4.1%, directly doubling.

At 12:30 (UTC) on Friday, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for September was announced, with a previous value of 3.9% and a forecast of 3.7%. On Friday, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator will be released, which is expected to show stubbornness and stickiness in inflation, which may drive up market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate hike.