Zandi: The probability of a recession in the United States over the next year is 49%.

[Zandi: The probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next year is 49%] Moody's chief economist Zandi continues to warn that the risks of a downturn in the U.S. economy are increasing. States that account for nearly one-third of U.S. GDP have already entered a recession or are very likely to do so, another one-third of the states are experiencing economic stagnation, while the remaining one-third are still expanding. According to Moody's machine learning model, the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession in the next 12 months is 49%. Although tax cuts and defense spending may boost the economy next year, Zandi stated that the current baseline expectation is to "barely avoid a recession." He pointed out that the end of this year to early next year is the most vulnerable period for the economy, at which time the inflation impact from high tariffs and tightening immigration policies will peak, severely compressing household real income and consumer spending. Zandi also indicated that given the recent employment data revisions are generally low, he does not rule out the possibility that subsequent data will show the economy has begun to contract.