Bitcoin recreates the peak of 2021 – But this time, the whales have different plans!

Bitcoin has seen a strong growth in recent times, with the trading value surpassing the $100,000 level. However, despite these impressive numbers, the public's excitement has not been in tune with the rise in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. This is evident in the decline in interest in Bitcoin on Google Trends.

This has created an interesting contradiction: although Bitcoin is trading at a very high price, public attention is not proportional. Comments on platform X continuously predict that the price of 108,000 dollars could mark a new peak for Bitcoin, similar to what happened during the 2021 cycle. However, when looking at on-chain data, the story takes a different direction.

Exchange Cash Flow: A Bullish Signal?

One of the important indicators reflecting the trading situation of Bitcoin is the cash flow on exchanges. According to information from Axel Adler Jr., the BTC cash flow continues to maintain a negative trend, indicating that the wave of Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges shows no signs of stopping since March. This is a clear sign that investors still hold strong confidence in the bright future of Bitcoin, as they choose to hold assets instead of trading or selling.

Every day, an average of over 3,600 BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges, demonstrating the determination and confidence of investors in the long-term potential of Bitcoin. This stable negative cash flow is not only a positive signal for the bullish ability but also evidence that investors are still trusting in the sustainable development of this cryptocurrency.

Investor Behavior

While the flow of Bitcoin money on exchanges still maintains a downward trend, the behavior of short-term hodlers (STH) also has a marked change. According to data from Adler Insights, profit flows from short-term investors have fallen sharply throughout the past two weeks. Specifically, when Bitcoin first reached the $11,000 mark, the profit stream of short-term investors reached 49.5 thousand BTC. However, when the price of Bitcoin hovered around $108,000 at the end of May, this number plummeted to just 3.4K BTC in early June.

! Source: CryptoQuantThis shows that the selling power from short-term investors is declining markedly, although the price of Bitcoin is still quite high. This decline is not only an indication that the STHs have exhausted their selling momentum, but also reflects a shift in market sentiment: optimism and expectations for a sustainable bullish trend in the future.

In parallel with minimizing selling activities from STH, long-term hodlers (LTH) are actively increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Since April, the change in the holding position of long-term investors has turned positive, with a net increase of 535,000 BTC within the last 30 days. This shows that whales and large investors are no longer making sell-offs like at the end of 2024, but instead they have turned to asset accumulation strategies.

The increase in LTH's holdings is not a coincidence. This reflects expectations for Bitcoin's continued growth in the near term. It is not difficult to see the similarities with the strong bull runs that the market witnessed in October 2023 and from September to October 2024, when long-term investors also started accumulating Bitcoin, and soon after, the market had strong bull runs.

! Source: CryptoQuantThe increase in LTH's holdings is not merely a sign of stability, but also a clear manifestation of expectations for a new bullish cycle. Large investors, after accumulating Bitcoin, tend to maintain an optimistic outlook, expecting an increase in the value of this cryptocurrency in the future. They don't just see Bitcoin as a short-term asset, but as a potential long-term investment channel.

Although public excitement has somewhat waned and media attention has not reached its peak as before, the signals on the blockchain tell a completely different story. Bitcoin is currently held mainly by the "big players" in the market, and the stable negative cash flow proves that investors are not only confident in a short-term recovery, but also in long-term and stable growth. This suggests that, while the market's euphoria may not have peaked yet, Bitcoin's growth potential is still very strong, and we may be witnessing preparations for a major bull run in the near future.

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