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Da Ming Securities: It is expected that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates again in October and November.
On August 20, Jin10 reported that TD Securities strategists stated that the latest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was within market expectations, but the market was surprised by its indication of further cuts in the future. Prashant Newnaha wrote, "We will not ignore this signal." He noted that two committee members voted in favor of a 50 basis point cut, and this dovish shift occurred while the acting governor still judged that the chance of inflation exceeding 3% this year was 50/50. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's confidence in the existence of spare capacity in the New Zealand economy may have been strengthened by labor market data significantly falling short of May expectations. Even in the face of rising inflation risks, the reserve bank seems determined to move towards further rate cuts. TD Securities has therefore adjusted its forecasts, now expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and November, with a terminal interest rate reaching 2.50%.