CMB Macro: Can US stocks continue to rise? Unless the siphon effect reappears, but it is very difficult.

Jinshi Data September 4th News, the research report stated that first, inflation constrains the loose space of the Federal Reserve. The trend of the US stock market in 2018-2019 has proven that a simple interest rate cut during the economic slowdown phase cannot push the US stock market upward. Second, the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve actually weakens the syphon effect of the US stock market, and overseas investors also have the demand to take profit before the election. Third, the key to the yen carry trade lies in the US economy. As long as the US further declines, the yen carry trade may reverse and intensify global market fluctuations. Fourth, the political cycle pattern of the US stock market indicates that after the new president takes office, there will be at least one year of annual adjustment pressure from the 25th to the 26th year.