BTC is an IQ filter.

Eight days ago on August 14th, BTC had just set a new historical high of 124.5k; today, eight days later, BTC dipped to a low of 111.7k. The maximum drawdown exceeded 10%. Many people are starting to waver and can no longer hold on.

What does -10% mean? It means that 100,000 becomes 90,000, losing 10,000 in 8 days. It means that 1,000,000 becomes 900,000, losing 100,000 in 8 days. It means that 10,000,000 becomes 9,000,000, losing 1,000,000 in 8 days. It means that 100,000,000 becomes 90,000,000, losing 10,000,000 in 8 days. …

In the face of a strong impulse to escape the market, why do some people flee in panic and forever miss out, while others can remain as steady as a mountain and navigate through bull and bear markets? Some viewpoints about the psychological issues of holding BTC shared by netizen @AdamBLiv are quite interesting, and we compile them here for discussion.

The Harsh Truth About BTC Ownership

The harsh truth about owning BTC is not what you think.

It has nothing to do with contact channels, knowledge education, or so-called "financial literacy".

Behind it lies a more unknown yet unbreakable essence.

BTC is like the Stanford marshmallow experiment for 8 billion adults [1].

Yet 90% of people have already thrown in the towel.

Note [1]: The Stanford marshmallow experiment was a children's psychological experiment designed by Walter Mischel in the 1960s. The tester placed a child alone in front of a marshmallow and informed them that if they waited 15 minutes without eating it, they would receive an additional one. The experiment aimed to study the relationship between the ability to delay gratification and future success.

Here is an unsettling fact:

BTC is not just about filtering capital strength.

It itself further filters cognitive ability.

The cognitive traits that can predict a person's lifetime wealth accumulation can also predict whether a person can still hold firmly during an 80% dip in BTC.

This is not a coincidence. This is evolutionary selective pressure.

There are three psychological barriers that hinder the true ownership of BTC:

Level 1: Abstract Reasoning Ability (Understanding Digital Scarcity, Cryptographic Proof)

Level 2: Emotional Regulation Ability (Enduring the Test of Fluctuation Cycles)

Level 3: Technical Sovereignty (Mastering Private Key Self-Custody)

Most people hit a wall at the first level and are forever stuck here.

Big data is merciless:

The correlation between IQ and lifetime income is 0.46.

The higher the IQ = The lower the time preference (correlation -0.23)

Even after 2008, cognitive ability can still predict the amount of risk assets held.

Every increase of 1 IQ point = annual income increase of 234 to 616 USD (approximately 2500 to 4500 rmb)

Accumulating 10 IQ points = 30 years can save up for a down payment on a Manhattan block in New York City.

But the less known truth is:

The psychological traits that help you accumulate BTC can also keep you steadfast during the inevitable 80% dip.

When high IQ holders hold calmly, the low IQ group is panic selling in the abyss.

Each cycle is concentrating BTC towards a higher level of awareness.

This inequality is the result of deliberate design.

It's not a conspiracy theory - it's just a mathematical principle.

Gini coefficient of BTC: 82.7% (more unequal than the United States)

The agreement is fully open.

The distribution curve is cold and unfeeling.

Mathematics never cares about your feelings.

The current level of concentration has become extreme:

Top 97 addresses: holding a total of 14%

ETF funds: accounting for 5.9% and continuing to grow

Corporate Treasury: 5% (for example, companies like MicroStrategy)

Sovereign countries: holding 2.5%

Total locked: 27% of the total supply of 21 million

One out of every four BTC will never circulate again.

The "holding coins" culture is not just an inside joke.

is also a cognitive filter.

Meta-analysis shows: high IQ groups have a lower delay discount rate — they can really wait for greater future returns instead of panic selling.

Real-life case: Surviving the 2018 bear market vs angrily selling out to invest in Dogecoin.

Every fluctuation and oscillation feels like a centrifuge:

Impatient retail investors: panic selling

Disciplined Whales: Accumulating and Buying Up

Only 23% of BTC has been transferred in the past 6 months.

Exchange balances hit a multi-year low.

The circulating supply is significantly disappearing.

The ETF is closing in:

BlackRock IBIT: Managing assets over $75 billion

Annual management fee: 0.2%-1.5%

This is the digital sharecropping system - you can see the crops, but BlackRock owns the land.

When your BTC crosses the moat, the rent begins to be charged.

By 2040, the situation will be settled:

99.6% of BTC has already been minted.

The block reward will decrease to 0.195 BTC every 10 minutes.

ETF or control more than 10% of the total supply

The new supply will become negligible.

Latercomers can only rent the exposure to BTC through the toll station established by the custodian.

Psychological profile of successful BTC holders:

• Highly abstract reasoning ability

• Low time preference

• Emotional resilience

• Technical practical skills

• Reverse Thinking Mode

These traits are rarer than Americans following healthy eating guidelines.

Most people see BTC as a get-rich-quick scheme.

They only seek the price of the coin to rise but do not understand digital scarcity.

Want to earn profits but refuse to accept volatility.

Desire sovereignty but evade responsibility.

BTC will only return what you have put in.

Never give a penny more.

What is the harsh truth?

Whether you can hold BTC does not depend on the balance of your bank account.

It depends on your psychological makeup.

Is it possible to abstractly understand the essence of currency?

Can you endure for several years for long-term returns?

Can you remain calm during an 80% dip?

If you can't, you will ultimately be just a renter.

The three cognitive gears must be precisely meshed:

Gear 1: High IQ => Higher Income

Gear II: High IQ => Higher Savings Rate

Gear Three: High IQ => Lower Time Preference

Even if you are missing a gear, you will always be stuck in the fiat currency quagmire.

The power of compound interest is brutal and ruthless.

Self-custody is the ultimate filter:

After the Mentougou incident (losses exceeding $450 million), the lessons gradually became apparent.

Every time the exchange experiences a storm, the sales of hardware wallets surge.

Currently, 35% of crypto assets are held in self-custody, up from only 25% in 2022.

Either master the mnemonic phrases and cold storage, or pay for custodial rent permanently.

Strict Action Guidelines:

Get BTC immediately (5.8 million hardware wallets sold in 2024)

Study sound money theory (Mises, Austrian School of Economics)

Automated Discipline Investment (Regular Fixed Amount Strategy Win Rate 3:1)

Escape the ETF Fee Trap (0.2%-1.5% Compound Erosion is Endless)

Early institutional layout (whether you are ready or not, they are already on the way)

This is not about "when to enter the market."

but rather the degree of improvement of psychological quality.

The BTC reward is:

Cognitive Clarity

emotional endurance

Technical Sovereignty

Either cultivate these three abilities, or entrust your financial future to the entity you are trying to escape.

The window of cognition is closing rapidly:

Every halving tightens the supply valve.

Every time an institution enters the market, they are pulling away the circulating tokens.

Every time regulatory clarity emerges, it triggers an influx of ETF funds.

Your plan to "HODL BTC" is turning into a leasing agreement with BlackRock.

The harsh truth about BTC ownership is that:

It is not that people cannot own BTC.

but rather a lack of the psychological structure needed to hold it.

BTC separates currency from the nation.

At the same time, it separates those with sound minds from the multitude.

Forever like this.

...

On Friday, BTC temporarily stabilized around 113k after more than a week of pullback. usdt 7.15, usd/cnh 7.185. The US dollar index rose slightly to the 98.6 line. Gold continued to consolidate at a high level around $3333.

The 8.22 Teaching Chain Internal Reference contains approximately 3,500 words, mainly covering: market dynamics, macroeconomics, micro-strategy downturn, hedge funds shorting ETH, the highest per capita revenue company globally, suspected artificial manipulation, the Federal Reserve's July minutes, ominous signs of celebrity coins, the 4-year cycle may still hold, BTC continues to dip, etc.