Bitcoin Future and Macroeconomic Trend Outlook

Recently, an online topic interview themed "The Future of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Trends Outlook" was held on social platforms. This interview invited several well-known industry experts to discuss the future development trends of the crypto market.

The guests focused on discussing significant events in the cryptocurrency market in 2024, including the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the arrival of the halving cycle, and the impact of Trump's victory on the market. They delved into an in-depth analysis of the underlying logic behind these events from their respective professional fields, and provided unique insights into the market trends for 2025.

2024 Market Review

The year 2024 is particularly important for the entire Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market. Several key phrases: Bitcoin halving, US Bitcoin ETF, Trump's victory, etc., these events have driven the market up, with Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark. At the same time, more institutions, companies, and even countries are starting to participate in the cryptocurrency space.

Guests believe that the most impressive aspect is the birth of GOAT, which completely overturns the industry's perception of the AI track. There are opinions that the first citizens of blockchain should be AI agents, not humans. In the future, there may be a vast number of AI agents utilizing blockchain technology to complete payments, DeFi, and various other functions; this is the true intersection of crypto and AI.

At the same time, the direct involvement of the Trump family in DeFi projects is completely unexpected. This shift could break the cycle of Bitcoin's four-year halving. The attitude of mainstream financial markets in the United States towards crypto assets has fundamentally changed. The combination of politics and crypto has come earlier and more fiercely than expected, and this trend will only continue to deepen.

Retail Participation After Bitcoin Breaks $100,000

Regarding the question of whether retail investors will find it difficult to participate after Bitcoin breaks the 100,000 dollar mark, the guests believe:

• If you expect to achieve hundredfold or thousandfold returns like in past bull and bear cycles and easily cross classes, it is indeed difficult to achieve after 100,000 dollars.
• However, if Bitcoin is viewed as an investment tool similar to US stocks and gold, it remains one of the best choices.
• The crypto market may still need to rely on altcoins and memes to carry the dreams of hundredfold/thousandfold returns.
• The market is undergoing a self-repair process, and in the future, there will still be altcoins and meme coins carrying high return dreams, but it may no longer be a model where you can "just buy blindly to make a profit."
• In cases of larger scale, it is almost impossible to outperform Bitcoin in both liquidity and returns at the same time.

For retail investors, the key is to consider the scale of their capital. If the funds are relatively small, they can consider allocating 50% to Bitcoin and the other 50% to invest in some low market cap secondary market projects or primary market projects.

Institutional Investment Strategy

Currently, there are more than one institution emulating MicroStrategy's strategy. Among the publicly traded companies in the United States, there are seven or eight mining companies adopting similar convertible bond structures, attempting to replicate MicroStrategy's model.

According to the data, MicroStrategy currently holds about 2% of Bitcoin, with a daily trading volume of 5-6 billion USD. If it increases to 10-20 billion USD, it would be roughly comparable to the scale of mainstream centralized exchanges. This convertible bond trading is essentially trading the volatility between MicroStrategy's stock and Bitcoin, which, to some extent, diverts the volatility business from centralized exchanges.

As long as Bitcoin does not experience a significant crash, more companies will inevitably follow in the footsteps of MicroStrategy. Some believe that in the next 2-3 years, similar models based on Ethereum or even Solana may emerge.

Bitcoin Liquidity and the Essence of Decentralization

As large institutions and imitators continue to buy and transfer Bitcoin from exchanges, the liquidity of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges is becoming scarce. Some believe this could lead to a rapid surge in prices. In response, the guests believe:

• The centralization of holding Bitcoin is not contradictory to its degree of decentralization. The inclusiveness of Bitcoin is mainly reflected in self-custody and transaction verification.
• Institutions like BlackRock or MicroStrategy buying large amounts of Bitcoin have actually enhanced the accessibility of Bitcoin.
• The decentralization and resistance to manipulation of Bitcoin are mainly guaranteed from a cryptographic perspective, and the price fluctuations are not significantly related to the decentralization of Bitcoin.
• In the long run, Bitcoin is likely to achieve true inclusivity like gold.

Bitcoin Ecosystem Status and Future

Regarding the Bitcoin ecosystem, the guests believe:

• The concept of "Bitcoin Layer 2" is somewhat forced and commits the error of Ethereum empiricism.
• Bitcoin Layer 2 is currently in a semi-falsifiable state. The development momentum in terms of EVM is not very ideal, and it may still need to wait for BitVM 2, which may take 1-2 more years.
• BTC-Fi has just begun. If it can provide safe and stable returns, even a coin-based return of just 2-3 points will attract some large investors to participate.
• The Bitcoin ecosystem should focus on those areas that are particularly important and require absolute neutrality.

Bitcoin during Trump's presidency

Trump will be inaugurated as the President of the United States on January 20, and the market generally sees this as a significant positive. Guests believe:

• Positive changes that may be seen in 2025 include: cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin may become strategic reserves for nations or sovereigns; more countries and regions may follow suit by establishing special zones for more radical attempts; the scope of ETF issuance may expand.
• One important background after Trump took office is that the Republican Party simultaneously controls both the House and Senate, which makes it easier for bills to pass.
• The attributes of Bitcoin and cypherpunk align more closely with the Republican ideals of small government and limited government power (. The Republican policy stance may be more favorable for the development of cryptocurrency.
• Currently, only 20%-30% of people believe that Trump will advance relevant policies within the first 100 days of his presidency. This expectation may be overly conservative and underestimate the likelihood of policy advancement.

2025 Prediction

Regarding the market trend in 2025, the guests believe:

• The likelihood of a bull-bear transition occurring in the first quarter is low, and it may not happen until the second quarter or later.
• Many promises may gradually be realized in the first 100 days after Trump takes office.
• The impact of policy legislation on smart contract platforms is greater, especially in terms of regulation of stablecoins and token issuance.
• Several significant structural changes may occur by 2025: traditional financial institutions will participate more deeply in the crypto market; large technology companies may incorporate cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets; the Layer 2 ecosystem may experience explosive growth; the integration of DeFi and traditional finance will accelerate.

For entrepreneurs, it is essential to seize this opportunity. For ordinary investors, do not be influenced by short-term fluctuations and get washed out. Overall, the market is positive in the long term, but the way the benefits materialize may differ from expectations.