🔥The May interest rate meeting is coming: Bitcoin pump or dumping? The ETF wave gives rise to alts "10x dark horse + Chande theory diagram explanation Lecture 21 (Images 4-9)👇

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Current Trend Analysis:
During this May Day holiday, the short-term high point rose to around 98000, but faced resistance and experienced a pullback. The current price has retreated to around 93800. From a smaller time frame perspective, there are preliminary signs of a bottoming out. Pay attention to the emergence of clear bottoming signals.
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The entire market has been overshadowed by a downward trend in recent days, with worries about a pullback for those who haven't reduced their positions. Those looking to add positions are afraid of buying at the halfway point. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been fluctuating at high levels for a whole week. I hope you can stay calm before a new trend emerges and buy cheaper chips.
The position around 94500 for Bitcoin has become resistance, suppressing the recovery. Support has dropped to around 91800, showing a trend of oscillating decline, with no signs of turning upwards yet. Before a strong rebound, there is a high probability that there will be another wave of accelerated dumping. The saying "no break, no stand" also applies here (see figure 1 below).
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Ethereum is once again facing a test at the 1800 mark. Similar to Bitcoin, the area around 1810 has become a resistance that suppresses its rebound. The support below is around 1740, showing a trend of oscillating correction. This support at 1740 is particularly crucial, determining whether the overall alts can continue to be bullish. Currently, it remains a correction trend.
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🎉This Thursday at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rates. Trump has repeatedly called for a rate cut, while more voices suggest keeping it unchanged. This data will directly impact the short-term market trends and may also serve as a turning point, so everyone should be mentally prepared.
The market's predicted probabilities for the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in May and June are 97.2% and 65.1%, respectively. So far, the market still believes that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in May, and this probability should be quite large. After the GDP and non-farm data came out, expectations for not lowering rates in June have also increased. The market has begun to abandon the possibility of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates without a recession (as shown in Figure 2).
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The expectation of no interest rate cut has already been anticipated, and the situation of a rate cut within the year has been assessed. The previous economic and employment data met expectations, so it is estimated that a dovish stance may not be possible.
As for the mention of pausing the tapering, I don't think old Powell will say that so soon. Other statements are either neutral or biased. Without significant dovish remarks, it will be very difficult to rise, so there will be a pullback and fluctuations.
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🎉The K-line trend has stabilized around 93,100 on the daily line since the 25th, and the URPD data chart is also 931,00 There is a huge amount of chips piled up here. For the time being, it can oscillate above 93,100 again. Let's look at the market sentiment after the opening of the U.S. stocks, the market's expectations for the interest rate meeting, and Lao Bao's actual speech. (Figure 3 below)
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It is still a low liquidity moment now, and the price is slightly declining.
Unless negative sentiment is triggered by an event, the downtrend will become clearer, but that hasn't happened yet. So let's observe for now.
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 🎉Some news and data this week
Monday: The non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be between 50.5-51.5, slightly above 50 but with weak growth (above 50 is bullish)
Tuesday: If the central bank governor hints at the forum that "inflation remains high, need to maintain high interest rates", it may strengthen hawkish expectations, bearish. If he mentions "economic weakness, need for easing", the market may bet on interest rate cuts in advance, which is bullish for the stock market and cryptocurrencies, and Powell may also express his views at the forum.
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 🎉Recently, the cryptocurrency world has been lively, with everyone talking about the ETF altcoin season. Many people want to ask: Can XRP rise significantly with this favorable wind?
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A few days ago, it suddenly spread online that "the US SEC approved the XRP spot ETF," and the XRP price immediately rose by 5%. However, it quickly fell back down, and everyone realized it was a false report. In fact, ProShares in the US plans to launch three XRP-related ETFs on April 30, but these ETFs do not directly purchase XRP; instead, they profit by betting on the rise and fall of XRP futures prices—there are three types: 2x long, 1x short, and 2x short.
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Now the United States has 4 XRP ETFs, all of which are futures products, without any spot ones. However, on April 25, Brazil took the lead in launching the XRP spot ETF. Additionally, on May 19, the Chicago Exchange will also launch XRP futures, which may be preparing for the future launch of a spot ETF.
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🎉The question arises, when will the U.S. SEC approve the XRP spot ETF? Big companies like Grayscale have long submitted applications, but the SEC has not budged. Now that the ETF altcoin season is approaching, there are more than 70 ETF applications in the queue, and everyone is hoping that the new SEC chairman will ease the approval process.
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Next, XRP, Sol, and LTC are regarded as key focus objects, while Doge, Bonk, and PENGU are also riding the ETF hype. But to be honest, those following the trend are likely here to harvest the leeks. In comparison, XRP has a market cap of 134.5 billion, while SOL has a market cap of 76.9 billion. From the perspective of scale and ecological development, the possibility of SOL rising in price later may be greater.
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This article only provides information based on personal opinions.
#sol# #alpaca# #sui# #eth# #btc#