"Signs" Before the End of the Bitcoin Bull Run

In the comments of yesterday's article, many readers expressed doubt about my assertion that Bitcoin enters a Bear Market after falling 20% from its peak.

When I was writing that passage, I recalled that I had previously organized historical data on this topic and retained a 20% impression, so I wrote it like this.

Later I thought about it again, this 20% is the index fall used to measure the Bear Market in the stock market.

Is there a similar fall standard for Bitcoin?

I checked Coingecko (

I have reviewed all the drops of Bitcoin that exceeded a maximum fall of over 20% after surpassing the previous bull market peak (equivalent to entering a new bull market) before reaching the peak of the new bull market.

Here, the reason for choosing 20% as the fall is that I consider 20% to be a significant fluctuation, one that could change the trend, while a fall of less than 20% is only regarded as a normal fluctuation.

When sorting through this historical data on coingecko, I used daily price trends for statistical convenience.

In the data starting from 2013, the first bull market peak was on November 29, 2013, when Bitcoin reached a bull market peak of 1101 dollars.

I take this as my starting point.

On February 21, 2017, Bitcoin surged past $1101 entering a new Bull Market.

From March 3, 2017 to March 24, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $1289 to a low of $940, a decrease of 27%.

From June 11, 2017 to July 16, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $3013 to a low of $1927, a decline of 36%.

From September 1, 2017 to September 14, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $4863 to a low of $3100, a decline of 36%.

From November 8, 2017 to November 12, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $7461 to a low of $5866, a decrease of 21%.

On December 16, 2017, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $19,665.

On December 17, 2020, Bitcoin surpassed $19,665 and entered a new bull market.

From January 9, 2021 to January 28, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $40,815 to a low of $30,445, a decrease of 25%.

From February 22, 2021 to March 1, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $57,669 to a low of $44,970, a drop of 22%.

From April 14, 2021 to July 21, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $64,576 to a low of $29,971, a decrease of 53%.

It is worth noting that the famous 519 fall occurred between April 14 and July 21. Excluding the 519 fall, Bitcoin fell from $64,576 to $48,981 between April 14 and April 26, with a decline of only 24%.

On November 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached the peak of that round of Bull Market at $67,617.

From the data of these two rounds:

In the bull market of 2017:

• After Bitcoin enters a Bull Market, there have been 4 occasions where a decline of more than 20% occurred after each new high. In each of these significant falls, the time span was within one month for 3 times, and only once just exceeded one month.

• From the entry of Bitcoin into the Bull Market (breaking the previous high in February 2017) to the peak of the Bull Market, the time span is 10 months.

• The first significant fall reached its lowest point in March 2017, and from that low point to the peak of that bull market was on December 16 of the same year, with an interval of 9 months.

In the bull market of 2021:

• After Bitcoin entered the Bull Market, there were 3 instances of a fall exceeding 20% after hitting a new high (including the 519 crash). If we exclude the 519 crash, each instance occurred within a time span of less than 1 month, while the 519 crash lasted for more than 1 month.

• From the entry of Bitcoin into the Bull Market (breaking the previous high in December 2020) to the peak of the Bull Market, the time span is 11 months.

• The first drop of this magnitude reached its lowest point in January 2021, and the time from that low point to the peak of that bull market was November 9 of that year, with an interval of 10 months.

Summarizing the characteristics of these two bull markets:

• After the second entry into the Bull Market, the frequency of such falls is decreasing.

• In terms of the magnitude of the fall, if we exclude the second 519 crash, the magnitude of such falls during the second bull market is also smaller than that of the first.

• During the two bull markets, the duration of most major falls did not exceed 1 month.

• The duration of the two bull markets from the start of the bull market to reaching the peak of the bull market is 1 year.

• The two bull markets are calculated from the lowest point of the first fall to the peak of the bull market, with a time span of 1 year.

Let's take another look at the current state of this round of market.

Bitcoin surpassed $67617 on March 9, 2024, entering its own Bull Market.

From March 14, 2024 to September 7, 2024, Bitcoin fell from $73,097 to a low of $53,923, a decline of 26%.

From December 17, 2024, to April 9, 2025, Bitcoin fell from $106,074 to a low of $76,329, a decrease of 28%.

Although the falls in both cases were not significant, the time span has notably extended, spanning nearly half a year. From the perspective of the span, this time has clearly shown different characteristics compared to the falls in the previous two bull markets.

So how is the correlation between this Bitcoin trend and the US stock market?

We can take a look at the trend of the S&P 500 index.

The S&P 500 index is rising from March 14, 2024 to September 7, 2024; from December 17, 2024 to April 9, 2025, it is expected to fall from 6050 to 5456, a decline of 10%.

This trend doesn't look much like Bitcoin.

If we start counting from this round of Bitcoin entering a Bull Market (March 2024), theoretically the Bull Market should end in March 2025. Clearly, this pattern does not apply this time either.

However, if we calculate from the lowest point of the first drop mentioned above, theoretically the bull market will end in September 2025.

Let's wait and see if the actual situation will turn out this way.