#PPI数据公布# The recent PPI and retail data are both weak, indicating that the pressure of rising prices is diminishing and may even turn downwards. This also suggests that inflation in the U.S. has not been resolved, and signs of deflation are emerging.

On one side is the lingering shadow of inflation, and on the other is the risk of an economic cool-down; the U.S. economy is truly experiencing a duality of extremes. Consumers are not spending, businesses are not raising prices, and one of the engines of the economy, consumption, is starting to sputter.
What does Federal Reserve Chairman Powell think?
Powell is now a bit in a dilemma. On May 15th, he stated: interest rates will not decline quickly! There may only be 1-2 rate cuts this year, and the earliest would be after September, depending on inflation and employment data. This means that in the short term, the Federal Reserve's influence on the market is limited, and the real variable still lies in Trump's policies.
Powell is actually quite conflicted. He recently admitted that he delayed interest rate cuts last year and missed the best opportunity. Now, with such weak PPI and retail data, there are signs that the economy is cooling down. If he continues to hesitate and doesn't cut rates, he might repeat past mistakes and cause the economy to decline further. However, he is also wary of easing too soon because no one knows whether Trump will impose more tariffs, creating a Tariff 2.0. Without tariffs, inflation data in April has already shown a significant drop, and the Fed might cut rates in May or June, which would relieve the market. But once tariffs are implemented, prices of imported goods could rise, leading to inflation picking up again. Powell is also worried that after cutting rates, tariffs could come back to bite, causing inflation to soar and resulting in backlash from the market and the public. Thus, Powell would rather wait longer than take the risk of cutting rates. He either cuts rates before July to preemptively stabilize the market or waits until after July, dealing with the mess once the crisis hits.
How will the market move next?
Now both the US stock market and Bitcoin are watching the Federal Reserve. Whether the Federal Reserve injects liquidity directly determines whether the market can continue to rise.
History tells us that a bull market relies not on logic, but on money! Monetary easing, with liquidity flooding in like a deluge, is what makes the market pump.
In the short term, Bitcoin and US stocks will continue to fluctuate at high levels.
In the long term, the global M2 money supply reached a new high this year, which has provided momentum for the rise of Bitcoin.