When will Bitcoin be highly volatile? Latest forecasts from experts

Bitcoin became sluggish on June 19 as analysts pointed out important volatile days for this cryptocurrency.

July and August bring new downside risks to the crypto market

Data from Bitcoin Magazine shows that Bitcoin is fluctuating within a narrow range and has yet to hold the $105,000 mark as support.

The combination of geopolitical instability, the US Federal Reserve's stagnant interest rate policy (Fed), along with the Juneteenth holiday that caused the US stock market to close — all contributed to Bitcoin's sideways price movement in the short term.

Regarding the Fed, the agency decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting on June 18. Trading company QCP Capital emphasized that Fed officials are not yet ready to act quickly.

"Officials continue to emphasize a wait-and-see approach, in order to await clearer data on inflation trends," QCP wrote in the latest newsletter sent to followers on Telegram.

Data from the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that the market still leans towards the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September.

! Fed Target Rate Probability for September FOMC Meeting | Source: CME GroupInstead, QCP Capital is focusing on key milestones in the ongoing U.S. trade war, seeing them as the next major source of volatility for crypto and risk assets.

"Negotiations are now stalled and leaks are repeated. The market seems to be less reactive to headlines about small tariffs," QCP argued.

Some important dates include July 14 – the EU plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods and August 12 – the deadline for the suspension of tariffs against China will end.

"These upcoming timelines could trigger sudden downturns for risk assets," QCP added, noting that stable outcomes in the case of China still have a higher likelihood of occurring.

Bitcoin is not very concerned about the "meaningless" FOMC meeting

On shorter time frames, Bitcoin traders continue to wait for a strong enough catalyst to break through the current sideways price range.

Famous trader Daan Crypto Trades assesses that there is a high possibility of strong volatility in the second half of June, even as soon as this week.

"The price is still hovering around 105,000 dollars – right in the middle of the monthly trading range and also the monthly open. The price has been compressed for quite a while, and it's clear the market is waiting for a strong breakout. The statistics still lean heavily towards the likelihood of significant volatility this week and especially this month," he shared on X in the latest section of the analysis.

BTC Price Chart | Source: Daan Crpyto TradesTrader Skew also agrees with those who think that the price of Bitcoin may fall to around $103,000 to absorb the liquidity bought in this area.

Source: SkewMeanwhile, crypto analyst, trader, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe described the Fed's event as unremarkable.

"I believe we will see Bitcoin test the $106,000 mark and then break upwards in the coming days," he predicted.

4 4-hour BTC chart and RSI data | Source: Michaël van de PoppeDinh Dinh