Critical moment: Analysts expect Bitcoin to enter a new phase of volatility

According to data from TradingView, the BTC/USD pair is currently moving within a narrow trading range, unable to establish the $105,000 mark as a solid support zone.

! Hourly BTC/USDT Chart | Source: TradingViewThis sideways movement is the result of many resonant factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions, monetary policy that remains in a state of "immobility" from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), along with the suspension of trading in the US stock market due to the Juneteenth holiday.

Regarding the move from the Fed – the agency that just decided to keep interest rates unchanged in Wednesday's meeting – trading company QCP Capital noted that officials are still showing a high level of caution.

“Officials continue to emphasize the ‘wait and see’ strategy until there are clearer signals regarding the trajectory of inflation,” QCP shared in the update newsletter sent to the community on the Telegram channel.

According to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market still expects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September.

The target interest rate probability of the Fed for the FOMC meeting in September | Source: CME GroupHowever, QCP Capital warns that deadlines related to U.S. trade tensions could become a strong volatility factor for the crypto market and risky assets.

"Negotiations are still at an impasse, while leaked news surrounding tariff policies is becoming increasingly tedious. The market may no longer react positively to minor information as it did before," QCP noted.

Among the important upcoming milestones, July 14 is particularly noteworthy as the European Union is expected to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. Following that is August 12, when the temporary suspension of tariffs on China will expire.

"These moments can trigger short-term sell-offs in risky assets," QCP added, emphasizing that a "stable scenario" in trade relations with China remains the most likely scenario at the current time.

Bitcoin ignores the "meaningless" FOMC event

In the short-term time frames, Bitcoin traders are still patiently waiting for a strong enough catalyst to break the current deadlock.

According to renowned analyst Daan Crypto Trades, the possibility of strong market volatility is becoming increasingly evident and could occur as early as this week, or at the latest, in the second half of June.

"The price is currently hovering around the $105,000 mark - this is both the center zone of the monthly trading range and the opening price for the month," he shared on platform X in a recent analysis.

"The price movement is being compressed, and it is clear that the market is in a 'spring compression' state. Current statistics lean towards the scenario of a significant breakout occurring – likely within this week, and almost certainly this month."

BTC/USD 4-hour chart | Source: Daan Crpyto Trades/XChung analysis, analyst Skew believes that the price of Bitcoin may return to test the buying liquidity around the $$103,000 zone before determining the next direction.

Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe describes the Fed's event as a "nothingburger" – a big event that yields no significant results.

"I believe we will see a test of the $106,000 mark and then a breakout to the upside in the coming days."

BTC/USD 4-hour chart | Source: Michaël van de Poppe/XSN_Nour