Digital assets demonstrate resilience in turbulent times

In June 2025, the global financial market is undergoing a significant test. The geopolitical situation is tense, with traditional safe-haven asset gold prices soaring to around $3,450 per ounce, while Bitcoin demonstrates remarkable stability at the $105,000 mark. This performance, which is "desensitized" from the geopolitical crisis, reflects a profound change in the underlying logic of the cryptocurrency market.

1. The Failure of the Geopolitical Impact Transmission Mechanism

1. The "dulling effect" of conflict impact

Recently, the situation in the Middle East has worsened, and Bitcoin has only experienced brief fluctuations before quickly stabilizing, in stark contrast to the significant volatility caused by past geopolitical events. This improved resilience stems from a qualitative change in market structure: the proportion of long-term holders has exceeded 70%, while speculative chips have dropped to a five-year low. Institutional investors have effectively buffered the immediate impact of sudden events through a hedging system established in the derivatives market.

2. The Paradigm Shift of Hedging Logic

The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being redefined. With expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has significantly strengthened, bringing it closer to a "liquidity hedge tool" rather than just a safe-haven asset.

3. Geopolitical premium's "targeted absorption"

The Middle East conflict has accelerated the process of de-dollarization. Some countries are settling part of their oil exports through Bitcoin, and this penetration of the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into rigid demand for Bitcoin. Data shows that the on-chain transaction volume in conflict regions has significantly increased after the events.

2. The Nested Game of Macroeconomic Cycles

1. The certainty dividend of the monetary policy shift

The market's expected probability of a rate cut in the third quarter has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of the Bitcoin term structure. Historical data shows that, on average, Bitcoin's gains are significantly higher than gold's in the three months leading up to the start of a rate cut cycle.

2. Easing of inflationary pressures

Recently, the core inflation indicators have retreated, and the supply chain pressure index has fallen to pre-pandemic levels. Although this weakens Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative, it unexpectedly releases its "growth-sensitive asset" attribute. Some companies have begun to convert their held Bitcoin from "intangible assets" to "strategic reserves."

3. The arbitrage opportunities brought by policy differentiation

The divergent monetary policies of China and the United States have created a gray channel for cross-border capital to arbitrage through Bitcoin. Data shows that the over-the-counter trading volume of Bitcoin in the China-US trade corridor significantly increased during the tariff dispute.

3. Deep Changes in Market Structure

1. The "deleveraging" of position structure

The proportion of hedging positions in the futures market has surpassed 60% for the first time, and the funding rate of perpetual contracts remains stable. This change has led to the market no longer relying on leveraged funds, and the previously common "double explosion" phenomenon of long and short positions has basically disappeared.

2. The "layered reinforcement" of liquidity structure

The proportion of institutional custody account balances has significantly increased, and this type of "cold storage" chip acts as a natural price stabilizer, making it difficult for short-term selling pressure to break through key support levels.

3. The "traditional integration" of the valuation system

The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional asset indices has changed, reflecting that the market is reconstructing valuation logic using traditional asset pricing models. Bitcoin's volatility is now close to that of technology growth stocks, significantly lower than it was a few years ago.

4. Short-term Price Analysis

Bitcoin is currently receiving support near the 50-day moving average, but the bulls are struggling to break through the 20-day moving average. Technical indicators show that both bulls and bears are temporarily in a balanced state. The key resistance level above is in the range of $110,530 to $111,980, while the support level below is near $100,000.

V. Future Path Projection

1. June to August: Period of consolidation and accumulation

Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate in the range of $98,000 to $112,000. Pay attention to the policy signals from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, as well as the support of the 200-day moving average.

2. Possible main surge from September to November

Historical seasonal patterns indicate that October performs well, and with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates for the first time, Bitcoin may enter a new round of increases. The peak of U.S. Treasury maturities could trigger a release of liquidity, becoming a favorable factor.

3. Risk Warning

Regulatory policy changes may trigger short-term volatility. Investors should be wary of potential corrections at the end of the year.

Conclusion

Against the backdrop of the restructuring of the global monetary order, Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation in its role. Its price stability no longer stems solely from a reduction in volatility, but from a reconstruction of its underlying value support. Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a speculative symbol into a liquidity tool that connects the real economy, playing an increasingly important role in the new financial ecosystem.