Crypto Assets Short-Term Trend Analysis: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist

Recently, analysts have pointed out key factors that may affect the Crypto Assets market in the coming months, including seasonal trends, changes in monetary policy, and technological upgrades.

Seasonal "Uptober" Trend

October has historically often been an up month for the Crypto Assets market, with over 70% of Octobers resulting in positive returns for Bitcoin. This phenomenon is referred to as "Uptober." Although past performance cannot fully predict the future, the popularity of this concept may influence market sentiment and lead to positive performance for Bitcoin this October.

Limited Impact of Monetary Policy

Although interest rates have recently been cut, the overall cryptocurrency market has not shown the expected positive impact. Data shows that the correlation between the overall cryptocurrency market value and the benchmark interest rate remains weak, at only 0.46. The market may still be waiting for more persistent stability before making clear directional adjustments.

It is worth noting that the emergence of Crypto Assets is relatively recent, and the lack of historical data makes predicting how they will respond to interest rate cycles quite challenging. Crypto Assets mainly appeared in the early to mid-2010s, and during this period, interest rates were close to zero for most of the time. Therefore, compared to low interest rates, the stability of interest rates may be more beneficial for the crypto market.

Options trading may deepen market liquidity

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETF options trading is seen as a potential catalyst. Analysts expect this could deepen liquidity and attract more new participants into the market. With options, investors can now interact with the ETF in a more flexible manner, thereby boosting the liquidity of the underlying assets. This development could initiate a positive feedback loop, improving market structure and making it easier for institutional investors to enter the digital asset space.

The Long-term Impact of Ethereum's Technical Upgrades

The upcoming Ethereum "Pectra" upgrade is another development worth paying attention to. This upgrade will implement over 30 improvement proposals to enhance network efficiency, optimize validator operations, and expand account abstraction capabilities. While Pectra will have profound effects on Ethereum's functionality, analysts believe that this upgrade is mainly structurally significant and not a catalyst for short-term price increases. In the long run, the impact of Pectra will enhance operational efficiency and popularity of Ethereum, but it is unlikely to trigger a surge in ETH prices in the short term.

Conclusion

Overall, the Crypto Assets market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, waiting for clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive sustained growth. The sensitivity of the Crypto Assets ecosystem to macro factors is gradually increasing, and the market is awaiting the next significant catalyst to drive development and enhance retail participation, thereby bringing long-term growth to the ecosystem.