Today's observation: The top 10 whales are split evenly between long and short positions, but why are most of them losing money?!

Well, there doesn't seem to be any updates on the macro front this week... No important macro data to be released.. The Federal Reserve's meeting is on next week 7.30, and the upcoming tariff game is on 8.1, also next week.. Back and forth, there's only various voices criticizing Powell.. Old Trump hasn't released any big news either..
So there isn't much to expect on the macro front at the moment.. If there are no unexpected news outside of expectations, this week will likely be another period of fluctuation.. Next week, however, will be a week of very intense competition..

There isn't much macro data, so let's just eat some melons.. I checked the whale statistics on HL again, and the top ten whales almost all have positions exceeding 100 million (except for the tenth one with 98 million). At this moment, among the top ten, it’s a fifty-fifty split between long and short.. The one with the biggest floating loss started shorting Ethereum at 2,822 from 5.9, with a position of 288 million, and currently has a floating loss of 68 million...
However, although the whales are evenly split between long and short positions, why are both the bulls and bears losing money?! Among the top ten, only 2 positions at 7.18 and 7.20 for Ethereum longs are in profit... The other 8 are all in loss.. So in this recent market situation, those who are heavily shorting are losing, and those chasing the rise are also losing.. The market is hard to navigate...

Let's review yesterday after finishing the melon.. Yesterday's low long at 11.82W was very confusing.. I kept wavering between whether to cut losses or not.. The original plan was to run if it broke 11.80.. But I found it only dipped to 11.78 and bounced back so smoothly, so I held on for a while.. As a result, it came down again, and when it broke 11.80W, I decided to take half off first, and the rest if it broke the previous low of 11.78W.. Fortunately, I managed to run when it returned to about 11.9W.. Just a little snack.. Not a big profit..
This morning I woke up to find that the order at 11.60 was finally filled... but I only got a little bit (I set a 200-point manual grid between 11.60 and 11.50 while sleeping).
Overall, there is no problem with the idea, it's just that the operation tests one's mentality..

Returning to today's technical aspect... Since there isn't much room in the fundamentals... let's focus on consolidation.

From the perspective of liquidity clearing.. Currently, the bulls have been very strong in picking up below.. Every time, they can only clear 3 days of liquidity before turning back.. Without any news support, it's not easy to clear a whole wave below in one go.. It still needs to be refined. However, currently, there is still a lot of attraction at 11.58~11.48 below..
The short liquidation is still around 118.5k. A wave around 120k...

From the orders, it is clear that the bulls are strongly taking over. Although there weren't many orders at 11.60w yesterday, after the liquidity injection today, there seems to be a large interest in entering the market at 11.65w. Just now, when it approached 11.65w, I saw several large orders totaling over 290 Bitcoin buy orders at that price. So just now, I entered another round of low longs at 11.66w, also planning to exit with a 1000-point profit.
Further down, the spot orders are at 11.60, 11.55, and 11.50, with staggered limit orders here.. The sell orders above are at 11.95 and 12w here..
The contract order is still at both ends.. A large order at 11.50 hasn't been filled for over a week.. There are also quite a few between 11.9~12w above..

Overall, the probability of fluctuations in the range of 11.50~12w in the last 1-2 days is relatively high...

Looking at today's thinking.. I'm currently holding a low long at 11.65, set to break even, preparing to run at 1000 points.. If it goes further down, I need to observe the situation of this wave of 290 large orders at 11.65..
Continue to sell in batches between 11.60 and 11.50... The exit is all at 11.38w..

The high short position won't be executed anymore.. Let's continue with the range around 120,000 from yesterday.. Place half of the regular position around 120,000.. This way, the stop loss can be moved up to 121,100.. However, there is a problem with the high short position; it's uncertain whether the order at 11.95 can break through.. If it can't break through, then placing a higher order might not get filled.. But if we place an order below 11.95, the stop loss at 12.11 seems a bit large.. It's a difficult trade.. So it's up to you to decide..