Matrixport Research: BTC May Have Entered a Seasonal Consolidation Phase - ChainCatcher

Recently, with the launch of "US Cryptocurrency Week", retail leverage activity has rapidly rebounded, and media attention has simultaneously increased, driving prices of BTC and alts to strengthen overall. However, as the favourable information peaks, market indicators are gradually transitioning towards consolidation. Data shows that in the past week, BTC prices fell by 0.6%. From a technical perspective, technical reversal indicators show that both BTC and ETH are not only in an overbought state but also face pullback risks, while the market heat brought by "US Cryptocurrency Week" may have already formed a momentum peak. Overall, this round of consolidation may last until August.

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The White House has postponed the release of the Crypto Assets report originally scheduled for July 22 to July 30. The report was initially expected to be completed within 180 days, and the market had previously anticipated that it might involve preliminary discussions on using BTC as a reserve strategy. However, given that the report's release is close to the summer recess of Congress, current policy expectations for the report should be lowered: it is highly likely that the report will not provide any substantive or actionable policy guidance.

The report's delay also indirectly reflects that the current focus of government work has shifted towards the stablecoin-focused "GENIUS Act." The core of this act is to support the issuance of dollar-denominated stablecoins by using U.S. Treasury bonds as collateral, thereby providing a new financing path for U.S. government debt. This framework not only provides strategic tools for the government to create debt demand but also further highlights the position and significance of digital asset regulation in the macro-financial system.

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As the market enters a relatively calm summer phase, coupled with the upcoming seasonal market closures, it is not ruled out that more traders may choose to reduce their positions or close some of their holdings. Currently, there are already quite a few large long positions in the market, and if the subsequent price movement lacks sustained upward momentum, investor confidence may gradually weaken, especially against the backdrop of rising funding rates and increasing holding costs.

This trend is particularly evident on ETH: its total open interest has surged from 14 billion USD to 25 billion USD. Although the funding rate has only slightly increased, a pullback is expected during the summer, which may trigger further position reductions.

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$122,000 is the key price for BTC in this round of price movement. With multiple reversal signals appearing on the technical front, it is wise to adopt a more cautious and contrarian strategy. At the same time, as the market maintains a strong posture, some early investors have begun to take profits, leading to increased selling pressure. The market is very likely to enter a summer consolidation phase next.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be done with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.