Bullish Market expects no reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve at the July meeting.

This contradicts Trump's call for immediate relief.
The Federal Reserve emphasizes a data-driven approach rather than political pressures.
Bull Market vs Trump's Expectations for Federal Interest Rate Cuts
Bully Market expects a 96.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep current interest rates at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This contrasts with Donald Trump's claims of imminent cuts, supported by a slight increase in the likelihood of a rate cut at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) by 3.1%.

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Current predictions from the Bull Market indicate a 96.3% chance that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates at its scheduled meeting on July 29 and 30, 2025. This prediction contrasts with statements from former President Donald Trump, which suggested that the Federal Reserve is ready to lower interest rates.
The PolyMarket expectation reflects market confidence in the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady, despite political statements. This trend confirms the Federal Reserve's position of prioritizing economic data over external comments to guide monetary policy.

Market predictions and political statements
Polymarket shows a strong consensus of 96.3% against lowering interest rates in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which contradicts Trump's statement that the Federal Reserve is ready to ease monetary policy. Jerome Powell emphasized a data-driven approach, calling for more evidence of moderating inflation before any cuts.
We continue to monitor inflation and employment data. Our decisions are dictated by economic conditions, not external comments.
The FedWatch tool from the CME Group indicates a slightly higher probability of 3.1% for a rate cut. Trump's statements calling for immediate cuts during his visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters on July 24, were not confirmed by any official statement or tweet directly from his campaign regarding his position.

The impact on cryptocurrency markets
The trading volume of Poly Market, amounting to $2.9 million on federal interest rate contracts, indicates confidence in the stability of interest rates. This indirectly affects major cryptocurrencies, with ETH, MATIC, and USDC stabilizing ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, in line with consensus expectations of no policy change.

Historical accuracy and independence of the Federal Reserve Bank
Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated their accuracy in Federal interest rate decisions, often outperforming survey-based forecasts. The independence of the Federal Reserve limits the influence of political pressures on monetary policy, reinforcing the historical trend that political calls do not affect immediate policy decisions.
Expert Opinions
Arthur Hayes pointed out on July 24 that "the bull market does not lie," supporting the idea that the increase in betting volume indicates a likelihood of interest rate stabilization. At the same time, Raoul Pal confirmed the market's resistance to interest rate cuts despite the political noise, maintaining the hypothesis of a stable macroeconomic environment: