#以太坊交易量飙升# Ethereum spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time in over a year, the market may be entering a new cycle, is alt season coming?

Ethereum spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time in over a year (25.7 billion USD vs. 24.4 billion USD), and this phenomenon does release multiple market signals. Currently, Ethereum ETF inflows are strong, with 2.18 billion USD flowing in from July 14 to 18, while Bitcoin ETF saw outflows during the same period, which may drive capital rotation. Additionally, ETH's price performance has been strong, rising 26% over the past week, while Bitcoin has declined, which may also attract more investors to altcoins.

In terms of technical analysis, ETH has broken through $3800 and may challenge $4000. Analysts predict a short-term target of $4000-4500, with a medium-term potential of $8000-10000. However, the RSI is overbought, which may present a risk of a pullback. At the same time, the decline in ETH reserves on exchanges indicates an increase in long-term holders, which may support the price.
Regulatory factors, such as the potential approval of an ETH staking ETF in the United States, could attract more institutional funds and drive prices higher. The development of Layer 2 will also enhance the Ethereum ecosystem, promote more applications, and thereby increase demand.
The Ethereum spot trading volume has, for the first time in over a year, surpassed Bitcoin ($25.7 billion vs. $24.4 billion). This phenomenon, combined with recent market dynamics, indeed releases signals that the alt season may be starting, but it's necessary to assess its sustainability through multiple indicators.

Has the alt season started? Three major signals need to be verified.
The synergy between price and volume
ETH/BTC exchange rate: The current rate has risen to 0.021 (the 2024 low was 0.018), and if it breaks through 0.03 (the threshold for the start of the 2021 alt season), it may confirm a sustained inflow of funds into altcoins.

Altcoin Index Performance:
The Altcoin Season Index is currently at 54, close to the launch threshold of 75%, but recently dropped from 62 to 48, indicating that sector rotation has not yet fully unfolded.

Market sentiment and liquidity Fear and Greed Index:
The current market sentiment is at "neutral to cautious" (58/100), not reaching the extreme greed level (85+) seen before the start of the alt season in 2021.
M2 Supply and Capital Increment: The global M2 money supply increased by 8.3% year-on-year, but the total market value of cryptocurrencies accounts for only 0.3% of global assets, indicating that there is still room for incremental capital to enter.
Regulatory and technical catalysts for the Cancun upgrade expectations: The Ethereum Cancun upgrade in Q4 2025 will reduce Layer 2 Gas fees, potentially further activating the ecosystem.
Regulatory clarity: The progress of the US SEC's approval of ETH staking ETFs (if approved, it will attract hundreds of billions of dollars in funds) and the implementation of the EU MiCA regulations will affect the flow of funds.

Current market phase judgment cycle positioning: alt season early stage
Bitcoin is still in the rising phase after the halving cycle (2024), but the volatility has dropped to a historical low (2.72%), and the market has entered the mid-term of a "structural bull market." Ethereum's trading volume has surpassed, marking the transition of funds from "BTC monopoly" to "ecological diversity," but it remains to be seen whether other altcoins (such as SOL, XRP, ADA) will follow suit.