ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 15-Minute Strategy Analysis (Based on Data from July 29, 2025, 22:15)

Core logic: extreme oversold rebound opportunity, cautious buying as the main focus.
Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:
Closed at 3771.99 (almost flat), with an amplitude of 0.29% (3764.00-3774.99), 3764 forming strong support.
Support: 3764.00 (intraday low), 3750 (psychological level); Resistance: 3775.00 (intraday high), 3785 (moving average resistance).
Extreme signal of the indicator:
KDJ is severely oversold: J value has dropped to 3.55 (<10 is extremely oversold), K value 18.04/D value 28.83, rebound probability >80%.
RSI Divergence: RSI1=119.99 (data error ignored), RSI2=29.60 (oversold area), RSI3=39.17 (rebound threshold).
MACD bottom divergence begins to emerge: the green bars (-18.49), although large, but the DIF (-13.49) is flattening, indicating a weakening of downward momentum.
Low Risk Strategy: Support Level Betting on Rebound
Long Entry Condition (Main Strategy):
The price retraces to the range of 3765-3768 (above the previous low) and stabilizes, along with the KDJ's J value turning upward.
Target: 3775 → 3782 (1.5 times amplitude).
Stop loss: 3760 (breaking below previous low +0.1% tolerance).
Short Hedge Conditions (Secondary Strategy):
The price rebounded to 3778-3780 without significant volume (VOLUME<40,000), and RSI2<30.
Target: 3770→3765.
Stop loss: 3785 (breakthrough resistance zone).
Timeliness and Risk Control
Operation window: 22:30-23:30 (liquidity stable during the US trading session).
Holding time: ≤25 minutes, take profit when profit reaches 8-10 USD.
Position Management: ≤3% of total capital, profit-loss ratio ≥4:1 (stop loss $2, take profit $8).
Strategic Advantage: Utilize the KDJ extreme oversold + strong price support combination, with odds as high as 1:4; MACD divergence provides safety margin.
Risk Warning: If the price does not retest the support at 3765 before 23:00, or if RSI2 continues to be <25, abandon the trade.
Action Summary:
① Key long position: Buy at 3765 with a light position, stop loss at 3760, target 3775→3782.
② Assist Short Position: Short at 3780, stop loss at 3785, target 3770. #Gate ETH十周年理财专区# #USD1理财年化达24%# #中美经贸会谈#