Recently, a rare scene occurred in U.S. monetary policy: for the first time in 32 years, two members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cast dissenting votes. Nevertheless, the Intrerest Rate remains unchanged. It is noteworthy that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks lean towards a hawkish stance, which seems to downplay market expectations for a rate cut in September.

Currently, signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economic growth are evident, and the future direction still carries high uncertainty. The annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter reached 3%, slightly above expectations, but this is mainly due to a significant weakening of the export rush in the first quarter. In the first half of this year, the growth in final domestic private purchases was only 1.6%, and GDP growth was 1.2%, which is a clear decline compared to 2.8% in 2024. It is worth noting that quarterly GDP data may face subsequent revisions, and there is a possibility that it could be downgraded like the first quarter data.

The uncertainty of international trade policies has further exacerbated the vagueness of economic prospects. The recently announced tariff policies, including a 50% universal tariff on copper and the termination of tariff exemptions on small commodity imports, will have far-reaching effects on the economy.

In terms of the job market, the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. On the surface, it appears that supply and demand are balanced, but in reality, it is a tight balance caused by simultaneous contraction of supply and demand. The inflation situation shows a trend of divergence, with service prices weakening while commodity prices are rising. It is worth noting that the impact of tariff policies has not yet fully manifested, and their transmission effects are currently relatively slow.

Looking ahead, it seems that the Federal Reserve restarting its rate cut cycle is just a matter of time. However, the specific timing of the rate cuts highly depends on the changes in economic data, which carries considerable uncertainty. Particularly regarding inflation, the new tariff policies may have lasting effects on the U.S. economy. Although these effects tend to be one-time, they could potentially influence the overall price level through price transmission mechanisms.

Overall, the U.S. economy is at a critical turning point. Policymakers need to find a balance between economic growth, employment, and inflation while addressing the uncertainties brought about by the international trade environment. The future direction of the economy will largely depend on the interactions of these factors and their impact on the market.