Bitcoin market divergence intensifies: rebound turns to reversal or downward correction?

The open interest of Bitcoin contracts has increased, and the key price levels on the liquidation map have been intensified, further exacerbating market divergence. Currently, there are two mainstream opinions: the rebound turning into a reversal, or the second distribution of a downward correction. Both views are based on supply and demand analysis but lead to different conclusions.

The K-line is a visualization of the supply and demand relationship, with each K-line representing the result of the confrontation between buyers and sellers. The marble theory materializes the supply and demand relationship, viewing the order book as glass of varying thickness, where active transactions are marbles with momentum. Price changes are essentially the process of marbles breaking through the glass and pushing the price.

The view supporting the rebound to reversal is mainly based on three aspects:

1. Profit and loss status of long-term and short-term holders:
   • The proportion of long-term holders at a loss is rising, approaching the threshold area for layout opportunities.
   • Short-term holders' profit and loss ratio converges, indicating a recovery of market confidence.

2. The supply and demand relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin:

   • The BTC-SSR indicator shows a stablecoin inflow into Bitcoin momentum accumulation.
   • The market capitalization of stablecoins continues to rise, which may drive the market capitalization of Bitcoin up.

3. The formation of dual anchor effects in high and low chip concentration areas:

   • The 60k-70k and 93k-100k ranges each gather about 11% of the chips.
   • Forming an up-and-down symmetrical structure may limit the price to the range of 70k-93k.

The impact of tariffs is gradually weakening, and market sentiment is easing. Short-term holders are gradually making profits, while long-term holders have not yet sold under pressure, and a large amount of stablecoins may flow into Bitcoin.

The viewpoint supporting the downward correction believes that:

• The US stock market has entered a technical bear market, in line with the characteristics of the Wyckoff distribution phase.
• Bitcoin is difficult to be independent of the trends of the US stock market.
• Need to wait for the final support point to appear, previous rebounds are all bull traps.

Market divergence intensifies, with the core being the assessment of U.S. stock trends and the independence evaluation of Bitcoin. Investors need to make cautious decisions based on their own judgments.