After Bitcoin reaches a new high, how will the alts market develop?

Bitcoin recently broke the historical high of $123,000, but the alts market has yet to follow suit. By analyzing the patterns of the past three Bitcoin breakout trends, we can predict the possible direction of the market moving forward.

Bitcoin is currently in a price discovery phase, while most altcoins are stagnating and mainstream tokens have yet to launch. Since mid-2023, each time Bitcoin breaks through has triggered a collective rebound in altcoins, such as during the process from $30,000 to $44,000, from $45,000 to $71,000, and from $71,000 to $105,000.

After these breakthroughs, altcoins usually experience an explosive period of 3-5 weeks, followed by Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase, regaining its market dominance, and the gains of alts being gradually eroded.

Currently, we seem to be in a similar situation: Bitcoin has reached $123,000 after breaking the resistance level of $107,000, and may soon challenge the $150,000 mark. If historical patterns repeat, this may be the starting point for a new round of alts rally.

However, it is important to note that this may not be a months-long alts frenzy, but rather a short-term sprint. Because Bitcoin's market dominance has not yet broken through key levels, this may not be a full-blown altcoin season. However, if Bitcoin's dominance no longer rises, there is still room for alts to increase.

The trends of mainstream tokens such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have shown significant divergence. Ethereum lagged behind Bitcoin at the end of 2023, but since then, each pullback has seen progressively higher lows. Solana initially performed strongly, but its momentum is now nearing stagnation. XRP initially showed weakness, but recently experienced explosive growth.

Currently, payment tokens have been launched first, including the "bank token" that complies with the ISO20022 standard. Some large-cap tokens that have not yet been launched are worth paying attention to, such as BNB, LINK, ADA, TRX, and DOGE. These may become the core targets of the next round of capital rotation.

If Solana starts to gain favor from investors, the tokens within its ecosystem are also worth paying attention to. Layer 1 clones may also see a relay market. Additionally, tokens like TAO and PEPE, which have performed well in 2023, could also erupt again if new strong narratives emerge.

Current trading strategy recommendations:

1. Focus on blue chip tokens
2. Look for coins that have not yet been launched.
3. Switch to a strong narrative when leading projects launch.
4. Temporarily avoid small-cap coins to reduce risk.

Altcoins may usher in a strong cycle lasting 1 to 2 months, but investors should remain vigilant and take profits at the right time. If Bitcoin reaches $150,000, the top 20 tokens by market cap may collectively rise, and some assets may experience significant catch-up rallies.

Maintain rational operations, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon underperforming assets. Although the current situation may not be as frenzied as the cycles of 2017 or 2021, it is still a worthwhile opportunity window. Small-cap coins will eventually rotate, but patience is needed to wait for the right timing.