The market has entered a high-level fluctuation phase, and structural risks are emerging.

Recently, the market has shown signs of growth and a surge in funds, but at the same time, it has also masked some structural risks. A comprehensive analysis indicates that the market may be entering a phase of high-level fluctuations.

The macroeconomic outlook shows signs of warming. Trump's easing remarks on trade issues, coupled with cooling inflation data, have jointly boosted market sentiment. However, the momentum of funds is weakening. The inflow of capital into stablecoins and ETFs has continued to decline, indicating a significant lack of new buying pressure.

It is worth noting that there is a divergence between price and momentum. Although the BTC price is rising, there are signs of cooling in capital inflows, off-exchange premiums, and ETF capital inflows, which increases the risk of a pullback.

In the current market environment, it is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy. Investors should closely monitor the support level of BTC around $100,000, as well as the pullback rhythm of ETH. For high Beta altcoin targets, consideration can be given to appropriately reducing positions at high levels.

Macroeconomic and Market Environment Analysis

Recent trade fluctuations and CPI data have triggered short-term market turmoil. Although the surge in corporate bonds has supported the stock market, it has also exacerbated the U.S. Treasury crisis. It is important to be cautious about the high leverage of consumers and businesses, combined with the Federal Reserve's policy restrictions, which have begun to reveal systemic liquidity risks.

Capital Flow and Mainstream Coin Market Structure

In terms of external capital flows, this week the ETF inflow was 609 million, but the inflow amount continues to decline. Regarding stablecoins, this week the issuance increased by 877 million, with an average daily issuance of 112 million, and the issuance level is at a low point.

The on-chain sentiment indicators show that the stablecoin premium continues to decline underwater. This reflects cautious market sentiment.

The technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) shows that the market is in a fluctuating upward range. On-chain chip distribution indicates an increase in chips above $100,000.

Ethereum (ETH) performed weaker than BTC, with the ETH/BTC ratio breaking down this week, indicating that funds continue to flow back to BTC. However, the rise in active addresses on the ETH chain may signal that a phase of bottoming out has been completed.

Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Data

ADP employment data has a certain impact on BTC prices. Statistics show that when ADP data significantly exceeds expectations, the probability of BTC rising within 7 days is about 94%, with an average increase of 6.8%. This may be because strong employment is seen as a signal of economic recovery, reducing market concerns about recession.

However, BTC's price elasticity to a single macro indicator is relatively limited. Regression analysis shows that for every 1% that ADP exceeds expectations, BTC only rises by about 0.06% on average. Therefore, ADP data can be seen as an auxiliary sentiment indicator, but its individual impact is not sufficient to determine BTC's direction. The actual trend needs to be comprehensively assessed in conjunction with macro policy signals and events within the cryptocurrency market itself.

On-chain Data Analysis

The total supply of stablecoins slightly increased this week to 211.256 billion, but the issuance amount was only 877 million, a significant drop compared to the previous period. The daily average issuance fell to 125 million, marking a new low in nearly four weeks, indicating a clear slowdown in capital inflow. This may reflect that the market has entered a wait-and-see phase, with marginal liquidity weakening in the short term, necessitating caution against potential consolidation pressure.

BTC ETF inflows have slowed for three consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of only 609 million this week, significantly reducing the marginal impact of funds. Although the price remains within an upward channel, it has diverged from the underlying funding situation, indicating a risk of weakness in the upward movement and potential adjustment.

The premium and discount in the over-the-counter market continue to decline below water, diverging from prices, indicating that the inflow of off-market funds is weakening and the market's new momentum is sluggish. This trend aligns with the slowdown in the issuance rate of stablecoins and a significant decrease in ETF inflows, signaling that the market is in a stage of existing stock game.

On-chain data shows that the chip ratio of BTC in the range of $101,800 - $104,000 has increased by 1.72%, indicating significant turnover at this price level, and market consensus is gradually forming in this area. This accumulation of chips reflects that this range has strong support attributes but may also become a short-term resistance zone.

The change in the structure of holding addresses shows a clear game of funds: large addresses are reducing their positions at high levels, while small and medium addresses show a trend of increasing holdings. Overall, the attitude of large funds is becoming cautious, while small and medium funds constitute an important support for the current price range. The market is in a stage of observation and competition.

Technical Analysis

This week, the market retreated after a high at the 1-hour level, testing the support level near $100,000. The current trading range has been flat for nearly 8 days, possibly affected by the weekend, not choosing a direction. The 4-hour chart shows that the indicators have been repaired, and there is a possibility of further upward movement. However, considering the recent divergence in funding data, if there are no significant positive news, the upward momentum may weaken after this surge.

In summary, the market is currently at a critical moment, and investors need to stay vigilant, closely monitor changes in various indicators, and adjust strategies as needed.