#美联储政策变动预期# Looking back, the Fed's policy changes often stir the market nerves. Right now, the expectation of a rate cut in September is growing stronger, which reminds me of the crazy market after the pump-priming in 2020. But history is always remarkably similar yet subtly different. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a cooling period, with indicators dropping from 80 to 60. Although it is still in the bullish range, the momentum is weakening. This reminds me of the previous rounds of bull-bear transitions.

The market is at a delicate balance point. On one hand, corporate earnings are generally better than expected, while on the other hand, investors seem to be waiting for new catalysts. If the U.S. economy continues to weaken and the Fed is slow to cut interest rates, it may trigger a new round of volatility. The selling pressure from early investors cannot be ignored.

From historical experience, it is important to remain patient at this time. If you do not sell at high positions, you cannot rearrange at low positions. I suggest paying attention to the support level of $112,000; if it breaks down, the range of $106,000 may become a new focus. At the same time, also keep an eye on the performance of ETH; its performance after breaking the $4,000 double top may provide us with some insights.

Overall, the market may remain consolidated in the short term, but in the medium to long term, we still need to closely monitor the Fed's September meeting. After all, a shift in policy often marks the beginning of a new round of market trends. Let's wait and see how this unfolds.