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Bitcoin pulled back to $113,000, Ethereum rebounded to $3,650, Pump.fun surpassed Bonk.fun.
Crypto Assets Market Dynamics and Outlook
Political and Economic Situation
Trump recently stated that he may not seek a third term and hinted that current Vice President Vance could be a Republican presidential candidate in 2028. He plans to decide on the new Federal Reserve board member candidates this week, with the shortlist reduced to four people. In addition, Trump is also preparing to announce new tariff policies on drugs and chips in the near future.
Former Treasury Secretaries Paulson and Geithner jointly warned that the U.S. Treasury market faces multiple threats, including an unsustainable fiscal path and issues within the political system. Although the current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is relatively mild, fundamentals such as the rule of law and the independence of the Federal Reserve are being challenged. Trump's dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief has further exacerbated market concerns about the credibility of official data, particularly posing potential risks to the inflation-linked bond market.
However, weak employment data has led Wall Street to generally expect a shift in Federal Reserve policy is imminent. Several financial institutions predict that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as September, with the final policy rate potentially falling below 3%.
Overview of the Digital Asset Market
The Web3.0 layout in Hong Kong is showing positive effects. Analysis indicates that Hong Kong listed companies are entering the Web3.0 field through financing, which not only promotes financial innovation but also optimizes operational efficiency and enhances global competitiveness. This trend is attracting global capital and talent, laying the foundation for Hong Kong to build a mature digital asset ecosystem.
Bitcoin recently broke below the short-term support range, leading to a large number of leveraged long positions being liquidated. Analysts warn that buying support is weak above $110,000, and prices may further decline. Multiple analysts believe that the market may test the $112,000 support level, and if it breaks, it could trigger a deeper adjustment. In the long term, based on liquidity models and historical halving cycles, some analysts predict that the peak price of Bitcoin could reach between $135,000 and $150,000 in September 2025.
The price of Ethereum has rebounded to around $3650, despite experiencing significant net outflows from its ETFs. On-chain data shows that institutions and large holders are still actively buying. Notably, a single entity has recently received a large amount of ETH through multiple wallets.
altcoin market dynamics
Pump.fun's trading volume and token minting quantity have surpassed Bonk.fun, and the platform has recently purchased a large amount of SOL. Multiple projects within the Pump.fun ecosystem are performing strongly, such as TROLL, USDUC, and TOKABU. As a result, the trading volume rankings of tokens like Fartcoin, TROLL, and PUMP are at the top, with TROLL token experiencing a nearly 100% increase in the last 24 hours.
The decentralized derivatives protocol MYX has recently surged significantly, increasing by 16 times within 7 days, reaching a historical high. On-chain data indicates that there may be spot and contract linkage operations behind its price surge.
It is worth noting that the Ministry of State Security of China has issued a warning about the risks of biometric data collection, describing it as highly similar to the Worldcoin project.
Market Data
Today's Outlook
Top 100 by Market Cap with the Largest Increase: Pump.fun up 11.5%, Saros up 4.1%, Curve DAO up 2.2%.