From Exchange to On-Chain Strategy: The Growth Path of a Data-Driven Trading Pioneer

In 2017, a young man from Taiwan entered the world of cryptocurrency. Two years later, he joined the listing department of an exchange in mainland China, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence. This experience not only deepened his understanding of the industry but also laid a solid foundation for his data analysis skills.

In 2022, this young man decided to leave the exchange and embark on his journey of entrepreneurship. Initially, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the enthusiasm for the NFT market gradually waned, he keenly noticed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, focusing his strategy on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analytical tools and trading bots to monitor on-chain address movements and generate trading signals.

This trader's strategy is characterized by a distinct focus: instead of paying attention to narrative valuations, he concentrates on on-chain monitoring and strict take-profit and stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear take-profit and stop-loss strategies, trading can be freed from the interference of subjective emotions. At the same time, he also points out that trading logic needs to be continuously optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behavior of on-chain smart money, then expanded his focus to team trading behaviors, and finally to the key main addresses of individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continuously improves the accuracy of trading decisions.

Currently, his main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL, which form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. In addition, the recently outstanding MOODENG has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000-fold return in a short period. However, for him, the significance of MOODENG goes beyond just profits.

The true value of MOODENG lies in the validation of its data-driven strategy's effectiveness. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's main addresses, he confirmed the trading theory of "following the main force". This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy but also provides valuable experiential support for future trading decisions.

Data and Discipline: The Key to Successful Trading

During the trading process, the trader emphasized the standardized strategy of "doubling the capital and halving the stop-loss," which is the core of their risk management. This strategy avoids market sentiment interference with clear rules and validates the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.

In trading, you only need to maintain a win rate of over 33% to achieve a positive EV. For example:

• Take profit scenario: sell all after the asset doubles, achieving a 100% return.

• Stop-loss scenario: Sell all after the asset is halved, resulting in a 50% loss.

Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns will show positive growth. This trader's strategy is based on probability, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset and avoiding fluctuations in trading decisions due to short-term market volatility.

At the same time, his team developed a series of data-centric tools to provide users with deep insights into market hotspots and major player behaviors:

Token Insider Analysis

Analyze the token holding structure and address behavior through big data. Its core functions include:

• Mainforce Behavior Recognition: Filter addresses that have transfer associations or collective trading characteristics, classifying them as "gang" or "mainforce cluster".
• Snapshot and Trend Analysis: Qualitative and quantitative assessment of token holding concentration to identify whether the main force is accumulating.
• Behavioral Model Optimization: Combining the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and on-chain capital flow trends to form accurate predictions of major operations.

FOMO CALL Signal

This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on a database of thousands of smart money addresses accumulated by the team. When a group of historically successful addresses collectively buys a certain token within a short period in the market, FOMO CALL will issue a signal. This signal helps users quickly capture market hotspots and determine whether the token has potential short-term upside.

These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the main funding level of a certain token has reached a peak, while the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of several smart money investors, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combined with strategies of doubling down and setting stop-loss limits.

Data-driven methods to capture key player trends

In the cryptocurrency market, the main players profit through accumulation and distribution, and during this process, the on-chain holding behavior will inevitably change. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavior patterns of the main players through data. For instance, during the accumulation period, the main players will exhibit specific on-chain behaviors, which can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals.

However, as more people adopt similar strategies, the main players may adjust their strategies or even hide their behaviors. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify the potential hidden behaviors of the main players. This trader believes that this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.

His strategy starts with tracking "smart money", which usually achieves a win rate of over 40% in the market and realizes significant profits. By filtering out these addresses with tools, he and his team established their own DAO and monitoring list to continuously monitor a group of high-performing address clusters.

The core methods of the strategy include:

• Identify collective actions: Team monitoring has found that certain address clusters operate synchronously, including collective accumulation and distribution behaviors. This pattern serves as the basis for the strategy.
• Position Control: When following the main players, avoid entering the top 100 holding rankings to maintain a low profile and not disrupt the main players' trading rhythm. Typically, the buying position should not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
• Signal Response: When clusters in the monitoring list collectively enter a certain token, the strategy follows up with small exploratory amounts to avoid prematurely exposing its own behavior.

MOODENG Exchange Case

The successful transaction of MOODENG is an important milestone for this trader team. In September 2024, the team monitored a large-scale entry of a long-performing address cluster into MOODENG and quickly accumulated. Based on the past trading methods of the main force, the team maintained small purchases and gradually followed up.

During the trading process, the main players test the market's buying and selling sentiment through multiple rises and pullbacks, while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. This trader monitors the changes in the holding ratios of these main addresses in real time and finds that the main players always accumulate again after each pullback. This phenomenon has strengthened the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.

In the end, MOODENG rose from an initial small market cap to a market cap of several hundred million; the team not only achieved substantial profits but also validated the trading theory of "following the main force" through this process.

Seize the capital rotation opportunities in the crypto market

The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of funds will vary at different periods:

Mainstream Coin Rotation: Funds may concentrate on mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, leading to a lack of on-chain liquidity and lower trading volume.

Emerging Public Chains and Hotspot Switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent shift from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Solana has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low Gas fees.

Meme Track and Narrative Shift: In more segmented tracks, such as meme tokens, funds will also rotate due to updates from launchpads or changes in narratives. For example, the market focus of funds is constantly shifting from Solana's high-frequency PVP market to new projects on the Base chain.

Using on-chain data tools, this trader's team monitors on-chain trading volume and capital flow in real-time to assist in decision-making. For example, recent capital rotation indicates that emerging on-chain virtual economies (such as AI Agent and Virtuals) have become hot topics, which suggests that the team needs to adjust positions in a timely manner to follow capital trends.

Calmness and Discipline: The Keys to Success and Failure in Trading

Bull markets provide numerous opportunities, but they also come with high risks. In such markets, it is especially important to maintain calm and discipline:

Independent Judgment: The trader emphasizes that trading should be centered around validating strategies, rather than catering to market sentiment. He points out that emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily lead traders to be misled by the "eternal bull market" narrative, resulting in excessive optimism.

Timely Profit Taking: A major trap in a bull market is "reluctance to sell." Even when the market rises, taking some profits off the table is key to maintaining a long-term advantage. Even if you miss higher points, controlling risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.

Support for Stable Cash Flow: Cash flow is the anchor for calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through main business operations or quantitative funds can reduce reliance on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.

In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which includes: the fear of missing out on opportunities, returns that do not meet expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response, this trader also shared his coping strategies:

Focus on Trading Framework: Trades that exceed the framework, even if profitable, are not considered successful. The core of trading is verifying strategies and refining understanding, rather than momentary gains.

Establish a Calm Communication Environment: Avoid being disturbed by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, excessive emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.

Remember the cyclicality of the market: He pointed out that a bull market is not "eternal," but a cycle where opportunities and risks coexist. Even with strong bullish sentiment, one must remain vigilant to risks, especially when there is only a single narrative in the market without clear supporting logic.

Methods to Quickly Enhance Cognitive Levels

This trader believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading one's circles, and communicating with highly knowledgeable individuals can significantly accelerate one's cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking out of the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding people is an important way to enhance oneself.

In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he seeks his own breakthrough points by continuously learning from the successful experiences and methods of others. The influence of communication with others is subtle and profound. The actions and results of successful people around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his own path. He advocates "upward socialization," discovering more possibilities by interacting with better individuals.

He also mentioned that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" is a book that has a profound impact on his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth, teaching him to think about wealth management from the perspective of "making money work for you." He noted that this book breaks the traditional educational concept of "stable jobs" and inspires him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.

In addition to books, his progress has also benefited from other sources of knowledge. For example:

1. On-chain analysis KOL: Provides in-depth market insights and explains the logic of the main players' behavior from the perspective of market behavior and human nature analysis.

2. Social Media and Community: Quickly capture market trends by following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.

In addition, he believes that the integration of perceptions between Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2, exploring how to replicate their successful models in Web3. This cross-domain thinking allows him to stay ahead in the exploration of new tracks.

Summary and Suggestions

Data-Driven and Continuous Optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been validated as feasible in practice, but they require ongoing dynamic adjustments. Additionally, whether it is the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switching of narrative tracks, it is essential to maintain sensitivity and adaptability.

Patience and Discipline: Successful trading relies not only on strategy but also requires a stable mindset. Whether in a bull market or a bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment are essential to gain a long-term advantage.

Establishing a Pillar of Awareness and Cash Flow: With a stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more composed attitude. By "continuously learning" and "upgrading circles," keep yourself at the forefront of knowledge.