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The strategic reserves of Bitcoin in the United States have increased the investor allocation ratio to 3%.
Timing of Bitcoin Investment: Risk Drop, Opportunities Increase
Bitcoin has come a long way since its inception. As a seasoned professional in the field of financial analysis, I first heard about Bitcoin in 2011, when its price had just surpassed the $1 mark. Looking back, if I had invested $1000 to purchase Bitcoin at that time, this investment would now be worth tens of millions of dollars. However, the situation back then was far from as clear as it is today.
In the early development of Bitcoin, investors faced numerous risks. The largest cryptocurrency exchanges often lack reliability and professionalism, custodial services are not yet mature, the regulatory environment is unclear, and there is a possibility of technical failures. In short, investing in Bitcoin in its early days was more like a gamble.
However, over time, Bitcoin gradually overcame these challenges. Reliable trading platforms and custody services emerged one after another, the regulatory environment gradually became clearer, and the technological stability was verified. In January 2024, the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF further cleared regulatory hurdles for institutional investors.
Nevertheless, a significant risk has remained unresolved: the government may ban Bitcoin. This concern stems from historical experiences, such as the U.S. government purchasing privately held gold in 1933. However, a recent decision seems to have completely eliminated this worry.
The U.S. government has decided to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a move that indicates official recognition of the importance of Bitcoin. While the U.S. dollar remains the world's reserve currency, Bitcoin is seen as a reliable alternative option. This decision not only drops the risk of Bitcoin being banned but also opens new avenues for its future development.
What does this change mean for investors? We have observed that the allocation ratio of investors to Bitcoin is increasing. In the past, people would typically allocate about 1% of their portfolio to Bitcoin, but now this ratio has risen to 3%, and it may reach 5% or higher in the future.
In summary, the current moment may be the best risk-adjusted time in Bitcoin investment history. With the elimination of the last major survival risk, the investment outlook for Bitcoin has become brighter. For those investors who have been on the sidelines, now might be a good time to reassess Bitcoin's position in their portfolios.