Bitcoin Holds at $115,000: ETF Capital Outflow Pressures, Whale Accumulation on Dips Creates Market Divergence | BTC Price Prediction

Bitcoin has stabilized around $115,000 after a week of fluctuations, down about 6% from the historical high on August 14. Although whale wallets have continued to accumulate (with over 20,000 BTC added in the past week), the outflow of funds from the US spot Bitcoin ETF (with a net outflow of $121 million on August 18) is suppressing market sentiment. Technical analysis shows that BTC still faces downward pressure; if the critical support at $114,000 holds, it may lay the foundation for a new round of pump, but if it breaks, it could dip to support levels of $110,000 or even $103,000.

Market Divergence: BTC Under Pressure vs ETH Attracting Capital

Bitcoin started its strong summer rise from $97,000 at the end of May and reached an all-time high in August. The current pullback indicates a cooling of the market. Market opinions are divided: some believe this is a healthy correction in a long-term upward trend, while others worry about the beginning of a deeper adjustment.

• ETF capital flow divergence: SoSoValue data shows that on August 18, the net outflow of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF was $121 million, with a monthly outflow of nearly $140 million. In stark contrast, Ethereum (ETH) raised a record $2.83 billion during the same period.
• ETH favored by institutions: CoinShares' report on August 18 confirmed this trend, with inflows into ETH reaching $11 billion year-to-date, far exceeding Bitcoin's $5.3 billion. The report indicated that investor preference is shifting towards ETH, especially with rising expectations for the approval of Ethereum ETF staking.

Whale Accumulation at Dips Draws Attention

The latest report from on-chain data firm Santiment reveals important trends:

• Whales continue to accumulate: The group of wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC has added more than 20,000 BTC since the pullback last week, bringing their total accumulation since March to over 225,000 BTC.
• "Smart money" signal? Given the strong correlation between the historical position changes of this group and future price trends, the market speculates that whales may be gearing up for the next round of pump.

Historical Cycle Insights and Technical Games

• Shallow pullback may be a buildup for rise: Market analyst Rekt Capital posted on August 18, pointing out that Bitcoin's current cycle position is similar to those in 2017 and 2021—historically, rapid pullbacks of 25-29% often serve as a technical reset and herald a strong rise. If the $114,000 support holds, a similar pattern may lay the groundwork for a new round of price discovery.
• Technical indicators show contradictory signals:
  • Pressure remains: The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin is below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the downward pressure has not dissipated; the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggests potential large fluctuations.
  • Signs of overselling are beginning to appear: RSI reports 38, close to the oversold zone, suggesting that selling pressure may weaken.
  • Moving Average Divergence: Short-term EMA (10-30 days) is bearish, but the 50/100/200 day moving averages still support the overall trend.
  • Contradictory oscillation indicators: The MACD and momentum indicators are releasing sell signals, but the Bull-Bear Power indicator suggests that buying strength may return.

Key Price Levels and Market Outlook

• Upward path: If whales continue to accumulate and the $114,000 support holds firm, Bitcoin is expected to rebound to the $118,000-$120,000 range. If trading volume supports this, it may once again test the $124,000 historical high.
• Downside risk: Losing the key support at $114,000 could trigger a deeper pullback, with the next important support level at the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (around $110,000 and $103,000).

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The outflow of ETF funds sharply contrasts with whales accumulating at lower prices, intensifying the market's divergence on the nature of the pullback. Under contradictory technical signals, the battle over the $114,000 support level will become a watershed moment for short-term price movements. Cryptocurrency investors need to closely monitor on-chain accumulation dynamics, changes in ETF fund flows, and key technical levels to address potential market shifts and volatility risks.