Bitcoin price falls to $113,000, market sentiment turns cold but whales continue accumulation | Depth analysis of derivation and on-chain data

The price of Bitcoin recently fell below $113,000, a decline of 8.5% from its historical high, raising widespread concerns in the market. The Fear and Greed Index plummeted 12 points in a single day, entering the "fear zone." Derivatives trading volume increased, but open positions decreased, indicating short-term speculative exits. However, on-chain data shows that Whale addresses have accumulated 225,000 BTC since March, and institutional ETF inflows still reached $880 million in one week. This article analyzes the real market trends using multi-dimensional data.

Latest Bitcoin Price Trends and Market Sentiment Changes

As of the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is reported at $113,646, down 1.2% for the day, with a weekly decline of 5% and a monthly correction of 4%. The current price has dropped 8.5% from the historical high of $124,128 reached on August 14, triggering pessimism among retail investors. The Fear and Greed Index has plummeted from 56 to 44, a single-day drop of 12 points, returning to the "fear" zone for the first time since June 22.

Derivatives market releases conflicting signals: volume rises but open interest contracts

Coinglass data shows that the volume of Bitcoin derivatives trading increased by 6.23% to 83.7 billion USD in 24 hours, but the open interest decreased by 0.77% to 80.36 billion USD. The combination of increased volume and reduced open interest typically indicates that short-term traders are closing positions rather than establishing new ones, suggesting that the market is shifting to a risk control mode amid volatility.

Retail Panic vs Whale Bottom Fishing: On-chain Data Reveals Polarization

Santiment pointed out on August 20 that retail sentiment has fallen to its lowest point since June 22. However, contrary to retail behavior, addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by 20,061 BTC since mid-August, accumulating a total of 225,320 BTC since March. Historical data shows that changes in the holdings of such Whales often lead price movements.

Glassnode Report: Indicators Show Market is in a Fragile Balance State

Glassnode emphasized in its market pulse report on August 19 that after Bitcoin pulled back from a high of $123,000 to the "air zone" of $114,000, the relative strength index (RSI) cooled down, the cumulative volume delta turned negative, and spot momentum significantly weakened. Although the number of open futures contracts previously reached an all-time high, the funding rate still shows a declining willingness of bulls to pay after deleveraging, reflecting a contradictory state of insufficient confidence but being forced to hold positions.

Surge in Hedging Demand in the Options Market, Institutional Capital Inflow Remains Resilient

The options market's open interest and volatility spread rose in tandem, with the 25-delta skew turning positive, indicating a strong demand for downside protection from investors. Notably, Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $880 million last week, proving that institutional demand has not been affected by the price correction. The scale of on-chain transfers increased, but user activity and transaction fees declined, suggesting a significant capital transfer during the big dump.

Profit-taking positions account for 96%, suggesting risk? Glassnode key indicator interpretation

Currently, 96% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit, with a realized profit-loss ratio of 2.4 (meaning the average profit is 2.4 times the cost). This value indicates the need to be wary of profit-taking pressure, but it has not yet reached the market overheating threshold. Glassnode believes that the future trend of Bitcoin depends on two points: whether the decline will deepen into a long-term consolidation, and whether ETF demand and Whale accumulation can offset the weakness in the spot market.

Conclusion

The current market shows a typical "retail fear - whale greed" divergence pattern. Derivatives data is short-term bearish, but institutional funds continue to provide support. Investors need to pay attention to the effectiveness of the key support level at $114,000. If whales accumulate and ETF inflows can continue to absorb selling pressure, the market may gradually build a bottom and rebound; conversely, if profit-taking is concentrated, it could trigger a deeper adjustment.