#Crypto Market Rebound#  Is the big game brewing for XRP? A rally to $4.85 is expected!

XRP closed below $3, but a fractal pattern suggests a bullish Q4 outlook and suggests the potential for a rally to the $4.35 to $4.85 range.

Whale flows remain negative, suggesting a short-term downside move to the $2.65 to $2.33 range before reaccumulation.

XRP (XRP) extended its two-week correction on Tuesday, closing its daily candle below the $3 psychological level. While short-term seasonality suggests bearishness, the longer-term outlook remains constructive, supported by a recurring market fractal pattern.

A market fractal is a recurring price pattern observed across different timeframes. Similar setups often yield comparable results. XRP's current structure on its daily chart resembles that observed earlier this year. After reaching a high of 3.40 in January 2025, XRP then hit a low of 1.60 in April.

This local bottom emerged after the price touched liquidity within both the daily and weekly fair value gap (FVG). Higher timeframe imbalances are generally more significant because they highlight areas of higher investor bids and liquidity.

In July, XRP rebounded sharply, establishing a new local high at $3.66. The chart currently outlines a similar setup, with a new FVG between $2.32 and $2.66 visible. If this imbalance is filled, the likelihood of a new expansion phase increases, potentially paving the way for a breakout rally.

Based on the diminishing rate of return, XRP could see a 60–85% gain in the fourth quarter, potentially leading to a rally as high as $4.35. The critical turning point is at $3.85, above which XRP will enter price discovery.

With supportive macroeconomic factors, such as the possibility of a US interest rate cut, XRP could sustain its momentum beyond its initial targets and extend the rally for several more weeks. While short-term price volatility is likely, the broader structure suggests a continued upward trend in the fourth quarter.

Negative XRP whale flows signal exhaustion

Recent on-chain data suggests that large XRP holders, or "whale addresses," are reducing their positions, but selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.

A similar sell-off was observed in the second quarter, coinciding with XRP's broader correction. Currently, the 90-day moving average of whale net flows is indicating a peak in distribution. This could turn positive as prices move lower.

Historically, whale activity has played a critical role in shaping market direction. Prior to XRP's rally in the second half of 2024, whales built significant positions between $2.00 and $2.50. A similar setup may be developing now, with accumulation zones likely to reemerge around $2.65–$2.33.