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Are stocks actually as expensive as we think?
Known economists in the market began to price the probability of a recession in the US at 60% in the next 12 months. For the European region it is 50% and the UK is somewhere in the middle. Yield curves are still inverted. And the bottom line is that they're going to keep high interest rates steady for just a while, when it's hard to harden again, and the Fed cuts it by a full percentage point next year.
Other than that, this argument applies to stocks. The S&P 500 is up 20% this year, and the Nasdaq is near record highs after gaining more than 30% in 2023. Major indices everywhere from Japan to Stockholm posted double-digit gains. Based on this outlook, the indexes are not pricing in an impending recession, but suggesting that it is still early.
When we look at stocks adjusted for inflation, the gains look less spectacular. Although we are seeing solid rebounds as a percentage, we are still far from pushing the tops, the S&P 500 is 12.5% below the 2021 record when we adjust for Inflation, which is based on total returns! Even the Nasdaq 100 is 16% below its peak despite its 2023 performance. Also, if we look on a logarithmic scale, we can see that the index is well below the trend.
In short, stock market indices have not yet fully reflected the rising prices of goods and services in this inflationary cycle.
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