Caution! Before reaching 70,000, the decline is difficult to reverse! Once the 200-day moving average is broken again, is it a signal that the Bull Market is over? Has the rate cut Favourable Information been cashed in advance?

When there is no more room for a decline, it is an opportunity when fear spreads; when pumping reaches its peak and greed takes over, it signifies risk. From an emotional perspective on the price of BTC, the spread of fear is currently not evident, so there is currently no opportunity.

Some people use trading techniques, as do I, or rely on trading charts, and believe in the trap theory. However, trading techniques are not omnipotent, and they cannot alone solve the problem of making us feel at ease and profitable in the trading process.

The technology itself has three functions: the first is to deal with methods, when the technology breaks through or breaks, we should know how to handle the position; the second is to remind, when the price reaches a certain level, there may be opportunities, such as the golden section to 0.618 may be an opportunity to stop falling, but remember it's only possible, similarly, when the price reaches a certain level, there may also be risks; the third is to assist in formulating corresponding trading plans, without get on board position, stop-loss position, and target position, it is difficult to formulate a trading plan.

Currently, the role of trading technology is mainly to deal with methods, serve as a reminder, and assist in formulating trading plans. However, trading plans can be right or wrong, and they need to be tested by the market, so trading technology is just a trap tool. Having only technology cannot achieve stable profitability, and it must be combined with a complete trading system, including mindset, capital and Position management, as well as views, perspectives, and values regarding trading.

At the beginning, we mentioned emotions, mentioned techniques halfway, and then talked about the price of BTC and the current coping strategies. First of all, the current disposal method of BTC must be cautious.

Some people say that BTC will reach a certain high level, such as 80,000 or 100,000, but it is not reliable; some people say that the BTC price may reach 20,000 or 30,000 in a few months, which is also not reliable. We cannot speculate and predict, we can only follow the trading rules in order to face it calmly. Otherwise, we will allocate positions based on speculative and predictive psychological feelings.

Recently, after the BTC price broke through $62,000, it reminded everyone to increase the position. However, the fact is that BTC did not stabilize above $62,000. Although it formed a long bullish candlestick breaking the previous high, it eventually fell below the support level. The best reason for a decline is simply a decline, and there is no need for us to dwell on it.

Currently, we use the 200-day moving average to understand the current status of BTC from a more macro perspective. The 200-day moving average is a trend indicator and belongs to the class of moving average indicators. The longer the time period, the better the stability.

At the peak of the bull run, if the 200-day moving average suddenly breaks through, even if it rebounds later, it means that the chips have loosened, and the subsequent pump trend is approaching the end. Starting from the 519 incident in 2021, although BTC rebounded after breaking the 200-day moving average, the second and third breaks became easy, ultimately signaling the end of the bull run.

When BTC reached its peak in 2017, after the first breakthrough, the price experienced a strong rebound, and the second breakthrough became a signal for the end of the bull market. In 2014, when the 200-day moving average was first breached, the second and third breaches basically marked the end of the bull market.

Back to 2024, BTC broke the 200-day moving average for the first time in July, and the price surged to 70,000 again. After breaking through for the second time in August, there was a rebound and a small breakthrough, but it was still suppressed. For BTC price to reverse the decline, it must break through 70,000 in one go, otherwise the risk is huge. The risk remains high until it reaches 70,000 US dollars.

The increase or decrease in interest rates may not necessarily be Favourable Information. The pump of BTC in 2023-2024 is considered to be preparing for a Bull Market in September this year. But the market is unpredictable, and we cannot rely solely on such expectations.

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