2024 is coming to an end, and amidst the excitement generated by the apparent economic recovery in the last months of the year, concerns arise once again that the dreaded recession may occur in 2025.

This is a topic that has been touched upon by all analysis firms in their forecasts. Amid an economy showing strong signs of resilience, analysts are divided on the likelihood of an economic recession in the near future. Hence, the forecasts for 2025 vary among experts.
JP Morgan's analysis stands out, which estimates a 45% probability of a recession by the end of 2025.
"While we recognize uncertainties related to the political context, we have not modified our assessment of the likelihood of a recession at the end of next year," said Bruce Kasman, global chief economist at JP Morgan.
The bank makes these observations, even though it believes that the global macroeconomic outlook could become more fluid in 2025. This, as markets face increasing complexity.