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570 billion USD BTC and ETH options are about to expire! The market may face a huge shock before the CPI.
As the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States is set to be released on Tuesday, the sentiment in the Crypto Assets market continues to heat up. Bitcoin (BTC) broke through $122,000 over the weekend, while Ethereum (ETH) surged nearly 20% over the week to above $4,300.
Derivatives market data shows that the total open interest for BTC and ETH options has reached 57 billion USD, suggesting that the market is preparing for significant volatility.
Market Background Before CPI: Stock Market and Crypto Assets Rebound
QCP Capital pointed out that since mid-July, the correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market has significantly increased. With the popularity of the US stock market warming up, the total market value of digital assets has surpassed $4.1 trillion.
The market generally expects the July CPI year-on-year growth rate to rise slightly to 2.8%. If the data is lower than expected, it may strengthen the expectations for a rate cut in September; conversely, data higher than expected may hit risk assets including Crypto Assets.
BTC derivatives: short hedging and long covering coexist
The open interest of Bitcoin options has reached 43 billion USD, close to the 49 billion USD high recorded in July.
QCP Capital observed that the demand for short-term put options in the range of 115,000–118,000 USD has increased, indicating that some traders are hedging against downside risks.
At the same time, the phenomenon of short covering call options continues, reflecting a weakening in short-selling sentiment. If BTC cannot break through the current resistance, implied volatility may quickly converge after the CPI announcement.
ETH Derivatives: Open Interest Hits New High in 2025
Ethereum options open interest rises to $13.9 billion, the highest this year, just a step away from the historical peak of $14.6 billion set in March 2024.
This shows that traders are actively participating in the layout of macro events and view the consumer price index as a key catalyst for short-term price trends.
Institutional funds and ETF inflows support the market
(Source: Trading View)
CoinShares data shows that last week, digital asset investment products saw a net inflow of $571 million, primarily concentrated in BTC and ETH.
QCP Capital pointed out that the market has absorbed the large-scale sell-off by long-term holders, and the price structure remains robust, indicating that the market has strong resilience.
Long-term Outlook: The Market After Halving May Continue
Wincent Senior Director Paul Howard reiterated the prediction that Bitcoin is expected to reach 150,000 USD by the end of the year, citing historical halving cycles as the basis. He believes that while there may be consolidation in the short term, the market still has greater growth potential in 2025.
Conclusion
The $57 billion in BTC and ETH options open interest has added a strong atmosphere of caution and speculation to the market ahead of the CPI announcement. Both bulls and bears are actively positioning themselves, and short-term volatility may concentrate after the data is released. Investors should closely monitor the CPI results and derivatives market dynamics to seize potential trading opportunities. For more real-time market data and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.