Crypto Market Observation: Bitcoin is under pressure around $118,000, and the market is following tonight's non-farm employment data.

1. Market Dynamics

On Thursday, the U.S. President signed an executive order setting "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Countries that have not reached an agreement face higher rates, such as 25% for India, 39% for Switzerland, and 30% for South Africa. Tariffs on Canadian goods have been raised from 25% to 35%, and a 40% transit tax will be imposed on transshipped goods. The White House stated that this move aims to protect U.S. manufacturing and address trade imbalances.

Recent data shows that the core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding market expectations and reaching a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. However, the other side of the economy reveals signs of fatigue, with consumer spending growth slowing, real disposable income flatlining, which limits consumption willingness, and the household savings rate maintaining at 4.5%. Despite the FOMC keeping interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time this week, two directors have unusually voted in favor of a rate cut, marking the first occurrence in over thirty years. The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that the current resilient labor market is the primary determinant of monetary policy, with the unemployment rate becoming a core concern. The market is holding its breath for the non-farm payroll data to be released tonight, which could be crucial in determining the policy direction. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to a fifty-fifty chance.

The "Stablecoin Regulation" that Hong Kong is set to implement in August has attracted significant attention. Industry analysts point out that this move marks the official entry of stablecoin technology into the regulatory framework, with its clear structure and credibility attracting numerous strong enterprises to apply for licenses. This signifies a shift of related technology from the concept demonstration phase to large-scale commercial deployment. The industry is actively laying out plans to enhance comprehensive capabilities in trading, custody, clearing, and risk control, aiming to build an infrastructure system that can efficiently support cross-border capital flows, thereby promoting the deep integration of stablecoins with the real-world economy.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $115,000 this morning but has since rebounded to above $115,500. Analysts point out that if Bitcoin loses the key support at $114,000, market conditions could worsen. Another viewpoint suggests that if the current downward channel is broken, the next high-risk reward demand zone to watch is between $111,700 and $113,500. Near the current price, $115,883 is an important liquidation level, and analysis of buy and sell orders indicates that if the price can form a higher low at $115,700, it may be difficult to touch $113,800 again. Looking at the upside, if the bulls can successfully break through the downward wedge resistance at $118,000, it will open the door to challenge the historical high. Some analysts mentioned that although Bitcoin faced resistance at $118,000, the market is absorbing selling pressure in preparation for the next breakout. If a breakout occurs, the bearish strategy may need to wait for the price to reach the range of $125,000 to $127,000 before reconsidering. Fundamentally, there has been a significant increase in enterprise-level buyers over the past six weeks, with a buy-sell ratio reaching an astonishing 100:1, while spot ETFs have resumed net inflows, and news of the White House planning to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve has greatly boosted market sentiment.

Ethereum briefly fell to around $3600 this morning. Analysts pointed out that although ETH continues to face selling pressure at the $4000 level, its rebound speed has outpaced Bitcoin, mainly due to retail investors actively buying after long liquidation pressure near $3600. Its cumulative funding rate briefly turned negative, which is seen as a buying signal. However, cautious sentiment persists in the market. Some analysts mentioned that Ethereum has repeatedly failed to break through the psychological barrier of $4000 since March this year, coupled with a decline in its ecosystem's TVL and DEX trading volume relative to competitors, which has exacerbated investor concerns about weak on-chain activity. Nevertheless, there are views proposing a potential bullish scenario: if enterprises continue to increase their Ethereum reserves, its price may aim for $5000. In terms of trading strategy, some analysts have adopted a hedging strategy, going long on Ethereum while shorting a basket of altcoins, based on the logic that institutional funds are more likely to flow into ETH, which serves as the main market driver, while altcoins face greater uncertainty.

Yesterday, the most eye-catching news was undoubtedly the SEC's policy shift. The SEC chairman announced the launch of a "crypto project" at the full committee level, aimed at making the U.S. a global center for crypto assets by revising securities rules. The plan includes establishing clear token classification standards, updating custody rules, simplifying trading licenses, setting up principled regulatory pathways for DeFi and tokenized assets, and introducing an "innovation exemption" mechanism. There was also significant news from the traditional finance sector, with Bridgewater's founder officially stepping down from the board, marking the end of an era at the company, while Bridgewater introduced the Brunei sovereign wealth fund as a new major shareholder. Additionally, design giant Figma successfully went public and disclosed that it holds a large amount of Bitcoin. Its stock surged 250% at the opening and rose another 25% in after-hours trading, currently reported at $115. It is reported that Figma holds 700,000 BTC and plans to increase its holdings. On-chain data shows that its founder's address holds 2.3 million AGLD tokens, worth $1.76 million.

2. Key Data (as of August 1, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $115,619 (Year-to-date +23.51%), Daily spot trading volume $52.244 billion

• Ethereum: $3,682.83 (Year-to-date +11.05%), daily spot trading volume is $34.676 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)

• Average GAS: BTC: 3 sat/vB, ETH: 0.23 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%

• 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, STRIKE, ETH, Bitcoin, ENA

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 47.95%/52.05%

• Sector fluctuations: NFT down 8.98%; Meme down 8.73%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 160,329 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 630 million USD, including 151 million USD in BTC liquidations, 182 million USD in ETH liquidations, and 37.32 million USD in SOL liquidations.

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (118359.86 USD), lower channel line (116016.10 USD)

• ETH Mid to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (3687.83 USD), Lower Channel Line (3614.81 USD)

3. ETF Flows (as of July 31)

• Bitcoin ETF: -115 million USD, first net outflow after a net inflow in the past 5 days

• Ethereum ETF: +16.9996 million USD, sustained 20 days of net inflow

4. Today's Outlook

• Hong Kong begins to implement the Stablecoin Regulation

• The tariff deadline will not be extended and ends on August 1.

• Indonesia will raise the cryptocurrency trading tax rate on August 1.

• A trading platform will delist the XVS/TRY and YGG/TRY spot trading pairs on August 1.

• Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 44 million tokens on August 1, accounting for 1.27% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $188 million.

• GoPlus Security (GPS) will unlock approximately 542 million tokens on August 1, which is 20.42% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 11.6 million dollars.

• ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens on August 1, accounting for 4.78% of the current circulation, valued at about 9.9 million USD.

• Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3 PM on August 2, which accounts for 0.64% of the current circulation, valued at about 25 million USD.

• U.S. July unemployment rate: Previous value 4.10%, Expected value 4.20% (August 1, 20:30)

• US July seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population ( million ): previous value 14.7, expected value 11

Top 100 Market Cap Largest Drops Today: Pump.fun down 19.1%, SPX6900 down 15.4%, HEX down 14.5%, Pudgy Penguins down 12%, PulseX down 11.9%.

5. Hot News

• Strategy Q2 achieved operating income of 14 billion USD and net profit of 10 billion USD.

• Mill City Ventures successfully completed a $450 million private placement and launched the SUI treasury strategy.

• U.S. stocks closed lower: all three major indices fell, and the new stock Figma surged 256%.

• A certain trading platform increased its holdings by 2509 Bitcoins in the second quarter, bringing its total holdings to 11776 coins.

• White House: Will impose a 39% tariff on Swiss goods and raise tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%.

• "The ancient giant whale that held 3963 BTC for 14.5 years" has sold 180 BTC again.

• Galaxy Report: Corporate cryptocurrency asset holdings exceed $100 billion

• The core PCE price index in the US for June is 2.8% year-on-year, and the core PCE price index for June is 0.3% month-on-month.

• Pudgy Penguins CEO: The team has participated in U.S. encryption legislation, and the PENGU ETF will cover tokens and NFTs.

• Data: The cumulative total value of ETH treasury reserves for 64 entities has exceeded 10 billion USD.

• The public company xTAO holds $16 million TAO, making it the largest publicly traded holder of Bittensor.

• Kaia's native USDT has landed in tourist spots in South Korea, where visitors can exchange cash at stablecoin ATMs.

• DoubleZero launches a 3 million SOL staking pool and introduces the staking token dzSOL.