Why Is Dogecoin Price Going Up? Three Key Drivers and Future Outlook

As of June 9, 2025, the price of DOGE is $0.1958, with a cumulative rise of nearly 15% over the past week, sparking renewed interest in the MEME coin sector. Behind this upward trend is the combined effect of multiple market forces.

Market sentiment warms up and sector rotation.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently stabilized above the key level of $105,000, leading to an overall increase in risk appetite in the crypto market. MEME coins, due to their smaller market capitalization, are highly sensitive to market sentiment, and have rebounded first in this environment. Besides DOGE, other MEME coins such as Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Pepe (PEPE) have also recorded double-digit increases during the same period, creating a sector resonance effect. On a macro level, the mining regulatory policies in China and the U.S. are becoming clearer, alleviating market concerns over industry uncertainties, and further driving funds towards high-risk assets.

On-chain data reveals increased holding confidence

• Profit addresses account for over 60%: According to IntoTheBlock data, the majority of current DOGE holding addresses are in profit, which boosts holders’ confidence;
• Net inflow of the exchange turns negative: On-chain data over the past seven days shows that DOGE has increased its net outflow from exchanges, indicating that investors are more inclined to hoard rather than sell;
• The number of new active addresses continues to rise: Since the end of May, the number of new holding addresses on the chain has increased in sync with the transfer activity, reflecting that new funds are entering the market.

Technical patterns release bullish signals

Technical analyst Trader Tardigrade pointed out that DOGE has recently formed a “Falling Wedge Pattern,” which usually indicates that a price breakout is imminent. Currently, DOGE has broken through the critical level of Base 3, and if it successfully targets the resistance at Base 4, the short-term goal could be seen in the range of 0.18 - 0.20 USD. The 4-hour chart shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 62, not yet entering the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for price to rise.

Challenges and Risks: Factors Restricting Upward Momentum

Despite showing a rise, DOGE still faces triple pressure:

1. Profit-taking pressure: 57% of the holding addresses have their costs concentrated in the range of 0.18 - 0.20 dollars, and the current price has triggered some investors to cash out.
2. Mainstream asset capital absorption effect: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoin staking (annualized 4%-6%) have diverted market funds, weakening the continuous pump momentum of MEME coins;
3. Insufficient incremental funds: The growth rate of active addresses on the chain has not yet formed a trend-breaking breakthrough, and the scale of new investors is limited.

Future Outlook: The Intersection of Technical Analysis and Long-term Forecasting

From a technical perspective, if DOGE successfully breaks through the psychological barrier of 0.20 USD, it may trigger a short covering rally, with a short-term target pointing to 0.22 USD (near the May high).

The medium to long-term forecast shows divergence.

• End of 2025: Conservative prediction is $0.263 (Changelly), optimistic expectation reaches $0.316 (Coin Journal);
• 2028 - 2029: Multiple institutions predict the price will break through $0.84 and hit the $1.02 mark in 2029;
• 2031: The Digital Coin Price model shows that DOGE could reach a historical peak of $1.37.

Investor Operating Strategy

1. Key price management: short-term support level at 0.18 USD (stop-loss reference), resistance level at 0.21 - 0.22 USD (take-profit range);
2. Batch building strategy: If it retraces to the support zone of 0.18 - 0.19 USD, you can gradually allocate positions to average down the cost;
3. Cross-market linkage monitoring: closely track Bitcoin trends and the risk preferences of traditional markets such as the S&P 500, with a correlation of 89% between DOGE and US stocks;
4. Sentiment indicator application: Focus on comments from KOLs like Elon Musk and hot topics in the DOGE community, as social media volume significantly impacts short-term fluctuations.

The essence of MEME coin is an emotional amplifier. When the engine of Bitcoin starts, DOGE is like a firework tied to the tail of a rocket - it may fly higher and more brilliantly, but it is also more likely to fall after the fuel runs out.

The current rise of DOGE is essentially the result of a combination of three factors: the warming of market sentiment, stable on-chain holdings, and a breakthrough in technical patterns. Although there has long been an expectation of breaking the 1 dollar mark, investors still need to be wary of the high volatility nature of MEME coins and avoid excessive risk exposure. In the waves of the crypto market, DOGE always reminds us: behind the laughter, risks have never left the stage.