Market Observation and Key Data

Political and Economic Trends

Trump recently stated that he might not seek a third term and hinted that Vice President Vance could become the Republican presidential candidate in 2028. He plans to decide on the new Federal Reserve board member candidates this week and announce new tariff policies on drugs and chips.

In the economic sector, former Treasury Secretaries Paulson and Geithner warned that the U.S. Treasury bond market faces multiple threats, including an unsustainable fiscal path and issues within the political system. Trump's dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics raised concerns in the market about the credibility of official data, particularly posing potential risks to the inflation-protected securities market.

However, weak employment data has led Wall Street to generally expect that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. Several financial institutions predict that the Fed may start cutting rates as early as September, with a range of 25 to 50 basis points, and the final policy rate could fall below 3%.

Digital Asset Market

Hong Kong's Web 3.0 layout is showing positive effects. Through applications like RWA and DeFi, Hong Kong-listed companies are driving financial innovation, optimizing operational efficiency, and enhancing global competitiveness. This trend is attracting global capital and talent, laying the foundation for Hong Kong to build a mature digital asset ecosystem.

Bitcoin recently broke below the short-term support range, leading to a large number of leveraged long positions being liquidated. Analysts warn that the price may further dip to the $109,000 area. Some analysts believe that $112,000 is a key support level, and if it can hold, the rebound peak may reach $124,000. In the long term, based on liquidity models and historical halving cycles, there are predictions that the peak price of Bitcoin may reach between $135,000 and $150,000 around September 2025.

The price of Ethereum has rebounded to around $3,650, despite experiencing large-scale net outflows from its ETF. However, on-chain data shows that institutions and large holders are still actively buying.

In terms of other digital assets, Pump.fun's trading volume has surpassed Bonk.fun, with several projects within its ecosystem performing strongly. The MYX protocol has surged recently, reaching a historic high. Notably, the Chinese Ministry of State Security issued a warning about the risks of biometric data collection, raising market concerns.

Market Data Overview

• Bitcoin: $113,525, Year-to-date increase of 21.98%
• Ethereum: $3,582.39, Year-to-date increase of 8.91%
• Fear and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)
• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• Total liquidations in the last 24 hours: $358 million

Important Events of the Day

• The Linea on-chain DEX Etherex will launch REX
• Trump delays the effective date of reciprocal tariffs to August 7.
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlocks.

Market Performance

Among the top 100 by market capitalization today, Pump.fun, Saros, Curve DAO and others performed outstandingly, with significant gains.